Gonzaga’s efficiency could mean a deep run in March

One of the key buzzwords to describe this iteration of the Gonzaga Bulldogs is balance. We started talking about the depth, balance, and versatility of this roster all the way back in the preseason; the 26 games that have been played since have only validated our beliefs.

At the time of this writing, the Zags are perched atop the overall KenPom rankings thanks to adjusted offensive (3rd) and defensive (4th) efficiency ratings that place them in the Top 5 nationally in both categories.

Gonzaga’s balanced prowess isn’t just something to feel good about in the middle of February. It could also portend an extended postseason run—specifically the Final Four and national championship breakthrough that Gonzaga enthusiasts everywhere have been patiently waiting for. Don’t believe me? Let’s look at the numbers:

The most recent national champion, Villanova, finished the season ranked in the Top-5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. This feat was also accomplished by the 2008 Kansas Jayhawks and the 2010 Duke Blue Devils.

Of the 40 teams that made the last 10 Final Fours, 24 of them ranked in the Top-5 in at least offensive or defensive efficiency. If you expand the scope to Top-10 rankings in one of the efficiency categories, that number grows to 30 of the 40 teams. Notably, 8 of the last 10 national champions ranked in the Top-5 in at least one of the efficiency categories—the two UConn squads are the only exceptions.

Gonzaga’s current 122.2 adjusted offensive efficiency rating, and 87.8 adjusted defensive efficiency rating beats the average ratings of each of the last 10 Final Four groupings. And, its current adjusted efficiency margin of 34.42 is historically good, bested only by the 2014-2015 Kentucky Wildcats.

The haters will argue that the Zags are padding their numbers against a soft schedule. Ignore them, because they’re not paying attention. The Zags are 7-0 against KenPom Top-100 teams this year, and have to deal with getting every WCC team’s best effort. The numbers back up all the hype that Gonzaga is receiving, and support its Final Four hopes.

Despite all this statistical evidence, there are no guarantees in single-elimination tournament play. Teams that make the Final Four and win a national championship have earned it, but they also needed a little luck to help them get there. It’s difficult to account for the variance of tournament play, and some great teams have lost due to an unfortunate bounce here or there. But, these Zags have shown they are good enough on both sides of the ball to be in position to break through the final barrier for this program.

So what does this all mean? First, your eyes are not deceiving you while watching the Zags. They are an excellent team that compares favorably with some of the best squads of the last decade. Second, this team is good enough on paper to make the Final Four and win a national championship. Now, they just have to make it happen on the court.