In case you have not had the pleasure to check out Ken Pomeroy's wonderful work, do so at kenpom.com
He rates teams with math and magic (really just pythagorean theorems). If you want to know how it all works out then just check out the site.
After seeding has been announced Kempom's formulas have Gonzaga listed with the 4th best odds to cut down the nets in Atlanta. The not so good news is 3 of the other 9 teams with the best chance of winning join Gonzaga in the West.
Seed | Team | Rd32 | Swt16 | Elite8 | Final4 | Final | Champ | 1 in… |
3S | Florida | 96.4 | 81.5 | 64.3 | 48 | 33 | 21 | 5 |
1MW | Louisville | 98.7 | 79.9 | 65.3 | 47.7 | 33 | 20.2 | 5 |
1E | Indiana | 97.1 | 82.1 | 62.1 | 49.1 | 28 | 16.2 | 6 |
1W | Gonzaga | 96.1 | 61.1 | 42.5 | 27.9 | 14.7 | 7.5 | 13 |
2W | Ohio St. | 89.8 | 66.6 | 46.2 | 24.4 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 19 |
2MW | Duke | 93.5 | 63.9 | 40.8 | 18.4 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 23 |
1S | Kansas | 95.1 | 69.1 | 42.9 | 18.1 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 24 |
8W | Pitt | 72.5 | 32 | 20 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 43 |
5W | Wisconsin | 70.7 | 51.1 | 22.7 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 44 |
Check out the full list here. It's important to note that Math doesn't win games. That said, Kenpom favors teams who play good defense and have experience. (Only 1 team outside the top 40 defensively has ever made the final 4, GU are 14th defensively)
Gonzaga will most likely face some tough defensive teams in round 2 all the way to the end. Even by advanced metrics though, Gonzaga is favored to make the Final 4 from the west.
It all starts Thursday with Southern, who have a 1 in 18,436,877 chance of winning it all.
Go Zags!