Home Cooking
by zagtastic32 on Feb 12, 2012 1:15 PM PST
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PrintKevin Pangos was absolutely brilliant in this last home stand. One of my buddies summed it up quite nicely when he noted, "We are a much better team when Kevin Pangos doesn't miss." As obvious as that may seem, the stats seem to back it up. Looking just at his 3-point shooting here are some lines.
Home games (14):
46-93, 49.5%. 3.3 makes per game on 6.64 attempts per game.
Neutral Games (3):
3-11, 27.3%. 1.0 makes per game on 3.7 attempts. (note, this is heavily influenced by his 0-5 effort in the battle and is a relatively small sample).
Road Games (7):
9-37, 24.3%. 1.3 makes per game on 5.3 attempts per game.
So what does this tell us. First off, Pangos really likes the MAC. He has been unconscious, going 10-13 in the last two games (biggest home stand of the year). He lit up SMC, making all of Zag Nation giggle with glee. He has been pretty consistent, hitting at least one three in every single home game. Considering we play a decent majority of our games at home, this is a good sign.
Unfortunately, as a freshman Pangos hasn't quite learned to travel yet. He averages about 1.3 less attempts per game, and 2 less makes per game. He has hit some huge threes on the road but the consistency hasn't quite been there. Don't get me wrong, I love watching Pangos and have full faith in him, wherever he plays, but I am very interested to see how he performs in our final three road contests and Vegas. Gonzaga travels fantastically to the WCC, so the energy should be there.
Just putting out the stats, interested to see what you guys think. I know I'm looking forward to the rest of the year and the next three years. This kid can fill it up, no doubting that.
This post does not reflect the views of the blog authors or SB Nation.
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coming into March Madness
I actually think it a good thing we have so many road games this late in the season.
Everyone shoots better at home. Good Post!
I have been saying for weeks that home court advantage this year in the NCAA is a greater factor than ever before. (just anecdotal, I don’t have the stats to back it up) I have decided personally that the reason for it is the evolution of the sport toward greater and greater use of the 3 point shot as a tactic. So, long story short, I would wager that you would find similar shooting stats home vs. away universally with most players that shoot from deep.
Since you show neutral almost the same as away, I would say that the reason for the dropoff is shooting in the foreign gym as opposed to hostile crowds.
After this season ends, and I have no basketball to fill my life with
I’m going to do my research project and try to prove statistical significance to the ‘rumor’ that it’s true that teams shoot better at home vs on the road. I know it seems obvious, but to my knowledge, no study has been done to prove such a stat.
If anyone knows of such a study, please let me know. i would imagine that for some players, it’s easier to shoot at home vs the road, but maybe for some it is a non factor. i would like to study this on a team by team basis, that’s the only way you would get a large enough sample year in and year out.
Sounds awesome!
Another variable partially explaining the difference could be the experience of the players involved. Most college basketball teams have younger players with significant roles.
When I look at the games to be played and the two teams are evenly matched, the home team seems to be winning an overwhelming percentage of these games. The home team has also won many of these “pick’em” decisively. I believe we have seen this in the WCC, especially with the big 3, of GU, SMC, and BYU. Aren’t we used to seeing more of these games being barn-burners?
My plan
is to look at teams over several years (7-8). This would include some players for the majority of their careers, some at the beginning, and some at the end..
While I think I will look at FG and 3pt percentages, the best shot to use is probably going to be the FT. It takes all other variables such as defense out of the equation and simply isolates a player’s nerves, the crowd, and his ability (this should be factored out as I plan to look at teams of similar ‘talent levels’ (W/L in same or similar conferences).
To tell you the truth, I probably won’t be looking at GU. Teams like UNC, DUKE, Kansas, and Texas will probably be the best samples for this study.
To be fair, this study will only take into account shooting, and probably only free throw shooting. It will not show any referee bias (which has already been proven to favor home teams), or other factors.
The issue isn't that KP shoots better at home vs on the road....
It’s that he shoots so good at home and so bad away.
Everybody shoots better at home vs away, but the better players don’t have such a drastic drop off.
Hopefully KP can get better come March, but i think the confidence that is necessary to shoot well in the other school’s gym just comes from experience. Don’t know anything about his mindset or personality, and it’s too early to tell, but hopefully down the road he figures out how to channel the opposing fans’ hostility.
4 out 5 victories
secures Gonzaga a 6th or 7th seed, definately want to stay away from the 8/9th seed.
Lunardi
has us at a 5 right now. In fact he’s got 3 wcc teams in with byu as well.
"Average is as Average does"
by NCWzagfan on Feb 13, 2012 1:50 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Saw that....
if we get stuck with a 4 or 5 seed come tourney time, can we trade it in for a 6 or 7 seed? I don’t want to get blown out of a Sweet 16 game by a 1 seed again
Like our chances this year.
I don’t think there is any decisive number one this year. Sure the teams at the top are good, but there is no one running away with it this year. Lots of close game. Teams 1-8 losing to teams they shouldn’t and having close games with ones they should blow out. It seems that in the past their has been one team in the nation that was the team to beat. This year, seams that anyone can be taken down at anytime. I definitely don’t mind going against a #1. Gonna have to do it sooner or later if your going to make a deep run. I guess I am looking to go all the way. Not just past the sweet 16.
great post! This leads me
to a concern I’ve had the last few games. That is: perimeter threat. Is Kevin our only one? The other may be Hoff but he’s been ridin pine of late. Gary could be, but it seems few is focusing his effort on his all round game. My concern is when Kevin is off, who can step up from beyond the arc? Does hoff need more playing time? Do we need to run more plays for Gary? Obviously when we shoot well from the perimeter, it opens up the whole offense and we win games.
Is this a valid concern? Or do we have enough
options already?
"Average is as Average does"
by NCWzagfan on Feb 13, 2012 9:58 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Did Hoff even suit up Saturday?
I could’ve sworn I saw him in a polo and slacks. Did anyone else catch that and/or know why?
by superZAGnics on Feb 13, 2012 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
*Keita. My apologies.
wrong Mathis. Did anyone see/know why MK did not suit up?
by superZAGnics on Feb 13, 2012 11:05 AM PST up reply actions
He was hurt
I can’t remember what specific injury but I did read on Jim Meehan (Spokesman Review) Twitter that Keita was out for the game with a minor injury (I wanna say hammy or ankle)
GBJ is shooting the best 3pt% and is second in attempts but
don’t think looking for these guys hacking up 3 pointers on the perimeter should be the top of the list. Just let the flow of the game dictate that and be happy with the results. The key question should be the 3 position’s contribution on the perimeter. If that position had a shooter and was athletic enough to go to the hoop………..that would solve our post players getting there touches because opposing teams would have to guard the perimeter much tighter than they have in the past against GU. It’s getting there. Probably will be solved next year.
I agree
Take good shots. If the opposition is playing the 3 hard, then the middle is probably open and our bigs will probably get some nice 1 on 1 looks.
Pangos....
in addition…he has not turned the ball over in 3 straight games….
Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - the Wizard of Westwood
Turnovers
I agree. I saw on the Mark Few show a great stat. Between GBJ and Pangos they combined for 1 turnover in 126 minutes played during the games against the Gaels and Lions. That is phenomenal! Hope they can keep it up through league and March!
as far as this post goes...
not sure it is really accurate to compare two different sample sizes…Home vs Away….home is double the size….and KP could have been in a slump….it happens to good shooters and bad a like….when he recorded the 0 fer in both the Portland and BYU games….those two were away…so I will give you that…but those two are really skewing the results.
I agree that he is less comfortable shooting in someone else’s gym….from what I see, he rushes the shot just a tad….tends to “pull the string” and loses accuracy….I think that has to do with him being a true freshman and getting a bit rattled at times….
there has been a study done re home court advantage, and the results centered around the visiting teams offensive production….typically the defenses behaved the same, but the visitors offense played about 10 points below than their norm….while the home team performed basically at their normal offensive output.
Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - the Wizard of Westwood
But why is this?
RE your last paragraph. Is it because they turn the ball over more due to crowd noise, defense, etc and limit their possessions. Are they not used to the way the ball reacts off the rim ( hard vs. soft rim) and don’t get as many offensive boards and second chances? Or is it simply because they don’t hit as many shots both from the field or the FT line?
Not saying what you say is wrong, I’m just curious as to the “why.” I’m hoping to find this answer with my study.
by i_am_a_ZAG on Feb 14, 2012 2:01 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Me too
I have a lean toward the pure shooting aspect. Again, the stat in the post regarding the shooting % at neutral sites points toward shooting in any away arena and less toward influences such as crowd noise. I think the better study would be on 3-point shooting as opposed to FTs, although studying FTs would be significant too. Good luck!
good luck!
hope you find what you are looking for….
I just think you are going to need more of a sample size on KP before you can come to any accurate conclusions…….
Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - the Wizard of Westwood
I agree!
One thing is for sure…………………..he shoots better than Me……or Gaz!
oh i agree. this wasnt my fan post.
You could MAYBE get enough attempts throughout an NCAA career but then you would have to account for player progression/regression/injuries/etc. That’s why I think it’s hard to isolate one player and say “it’s harder to shoot on the road, look at this guys numbers!” Taking whole teams of players over 5-10 years should provide a large enough sample size to get random variation out of the equation
not meant to be a statistically significant report
Merely pointing out a noticeable trend during this year. Thought it was interesting and worth a little discussion. I think KP will get much better on the road. This all started with KP being absolutely unconcious at home in the last two games.
Again sample size is insignificant and there is absolutely not adjustment for any other variable. Not RPI or BPI or KenPom, just laying out some observable stats.
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