Offering An Official Welcome To The WCC: Zags Travel To Provo To Face BYU
by Max Mandel on Feb 1, 2012 10:14 PM PST
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PrintWhile Gonzaga enters its matchup against BYU with a gaudy 17-3 record, this difficult trip to Provo will tell us more about where this team stands heading into the final stretch of the season then any game before. Not only is BYU the most talented team that the Zags have faced since the loss to St. Mary's, but it's also a desperate team that knows how important a win on Thursday would be for the tournament resume. I'm of the belief that a desperate team is the most dangerous team you can face, so it would be best to ignore any of the recent struggles that BYU has had when evaluating this game.
Four of BYU's six losses have come against teams that are currently ranked in the Top 25, with the other two coming against Utah St. and LMU. While some Gonzaga fans certainly have an image of BYU from the NCAA Tournament loss last season, it should be noted that without Jimmer Fredette, this Cougars team is very different from the group that advanced to the Sweet 16. A good comparison to the adjustment that BYU is making would be to look at the 2006-07 Gonzaga team that struggled at times to figure out how to play after the departure of Adam Morrison.
BYU is one of the few teams that can match the interior size and talent that Gonzaga can put on the floor. The duo of Noah Hartsock and Brandon Davies is incredibly talented and versatile. Hartsock has made the jump from role player to primary scoring target this season, as he is averaging a team-high 17.5 ppg. Harstock is shooting 58.5% from the floor, but has struggled with his shot from behind the arc. I'm not sure how the Zags will try and matchup with Harstock, because Robert Sacre doesn't have the quickness to stay with him on the perimeter. Elias Harris has the athleticism and length to stay with Harstock and probably would be the best individual matchup.
Davies, who was heavily recruited by Gonzaga coming out of high school, is more of an interior threat for the Cougars. In his return from suspension, Davies is averaging 14.3 ppg and a team-high 7.9 rpg. It will be fascinating to watch Sacre try and contain Davies, who has a vast array of post moves and excellent footwork on the block. If Sacre can stay disciplined defensively, he has the size and shot-blocking ability to really bother Davies in the paint.
Matt Carlino is the primary offensive option on the perimeter, but has struggled in his role as the replacement for Fredette. Carlino is shooting only 41.8% from the field and doesn't necessarily have the best shot selection. However, he is the type of streaky shooter that has given Gonzaga problems in the past. Gary Bell will need to be at his best on the defensive end and extend his defense out on the perimeter. If Carlino can get going from the perimeter, BYU will be very difficult to beat in Provo.
I have gone back-and-force on how I feel this game will turn out. It's hard to believe that BYU won't come out with an intensity that Gonzaga probably hasn't seen this season. However, this Gonzaga team knows how important this game is in terms of keeping pace in the WCC race with a St. Mary's team that is looking like one of the best in the country. With that said, I'm not sure Gonzaga is catching the Cougars at the right time and I expect the Zags to fall 77-70.
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BYU relies heavily on the 3 pointer and the past 4 games they've shot 11 of 73 (15.1%) from deep.
Are we sure they’re even that good? Their best wins are Nevada (N), @ Virginia Tech, Oregon, and Weber State (granted, we haven’t exactly trumped any world-beaters either). For all the talk of their killer home court advantage they’ve lost their last two home game by double digits.
Granted as soon as I hit the “POST” button there instantly becomes a 99% chance they play their best game of they year tomorrow night and kill us from 3. But still…
it is a game we should win
we have had a week to come up with a gameplan, there is no reason we shouldn’t smash them.
Welcome to the Sound Pound...
I think coach Few
And the players and fans know that if we lose in Provo we wont win the WCC 12 times in a row. I really dont want to start over.
Go Zags !!!!
The 3
Good stats on the three I just hope they continue to trend down. IF they start hitting, the floor will obviously spread and Hartsock and Davies should have enough breathing room to work a little bit. While Bell is a strong defender, he is only one guy so everyone needs to show up including Dower who has been absent the past couple of games.
This is a must win game for the WCC
Sacre fouls out, Harris and Bell have a great game and the Zags win a hotly contested battle 75-72. I agree with Zagazags- the bulldogs are gonna come with a big chip on their shoulder and play an aggressive game.
Jim R Harris MA
Hartsock & Davies
Contain them and we win. I love our back court against theirs but their frontcourt is essentially 2 small forwards, too quick for Harris and Sacre. Maybe get some cheap WCC ref fouls on them early and pray they have an off night shooting. That’s my gameplan.
Seriously?
a St. Mary’s team that is looking like one of the best in the country
really? what wins are you basing this off of? they’ve beaten nobody outside the WCC, and since when did winning the WCC mean you were one of the best teams in the country? When was the last team a WCC team even won in the sweet 16?
Don’t inflate the WCC, none of the teams have earned it.
I've seen them play three times
And have been beyond impressed each time. They are currently ranked No. 18 in the AP poll, and I would argue there isn’t much of a difference between them and No. 13 Creighton. Would you say Murray St. hasn’t earned the No. 9 ranking?
Final 4 or bust
Murray St...absolutely....
It’s the same argument that stands true in both College Football and Basketball….it’s much different when you have to go out night in and night out against not just good teams, but bigger physical teams. That is what’s hard about playing in a big conference, not that the teams are better, but that the players are bigger, faster, stronger…(you recruit/scout off physical attributes, which the big name/teams are always going to have more of….but skill and ability, is harder to recruit, and so it doesn’t always end up at the best recruiting schools)
Look at who Murray St plays night in and night out…nobody. They beat USF by 3? really? Even Creighton (my brother’s alma mater) who I know and watch, is slightly overrated, but they can at least point to a win over SDSU and 3 wins over big conference teams (though those 3 are 3 of the 4 worst in the Big 10).
My point is this….calling any of these teams anything remotely close to the best in the country, is a stretch and largely unfounded….saying that the jury is still out and we just don’t have enough to properly evaluate, is probably accurate but generous. saying that they are overrated, is probably a good bet.
If you want we can email and propose some bets.
How would you rank the top non big conference teams? Here’s mine…
SDSU
UNLV
Creighton
SMU
Gonzaga
Murray St
Harvard
Fun Topic
I’d go as follows based on personal opinion. However, I do believe that Murray St. is deserving of its lofty ranking. Outside of UNC, Kentucky, Ohio St and Syracuse, I don’t think there is a whole lot of separation.
UNLV
SMC
Creighton
Gonzaga
SDSU
Murray
Final 4 or bust
Let's hope they don't this time around!
As Dower said/quoted in a recent article about the SMC game..
"Coach likes to say we tip-toed into a bar fight,"
It will be a bar fight….you can bet the farm!
Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - the Wizard of Westwood
Well, Few has identified the problem, then. Let’s see if the guys respond.
Let us not get too despondent. No Zag team has gotten this far in the season with fewer losses. St. Mary’s this year is the best non-Zag team the WCC has seen since before 1999. Our team is still getting better. Go Zags.
Def not despondent...
but def hope they understand they are going have to leave some skin in this game….
Well, those two men took to fightin’
And when they pulled them from the floor
Leroy looked like a jigsaw puzzle
With a couple of pieces gone
Get some boys!
Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - the Wizard of Westwood
Just have a BAD feeling about this game
I think this game ends up with an L, especially with some players sick. Would really hate to see the streak end.
Unfortunately, as do I
A desperate BYU team, sick GU players, Carter’s tweet (“Regardless of how it goes down life goes on”), streak potentially on the line for the Zags, and a strong finishing effort by BYU against the Gaels just doesn’t sit well heading into tonight.
If BYU comes out with anything similar to the pressure they applied at the end of the BYU-SMC game and if the little to late momentum they had rolling carries over, the Zags could find themselves in a hole early. As Max, I don’t think the Zags are catching BYU at the right time.
by superZAGnics on Feb 2, 2012 11:33 AM PST up reply actions
Bell and Dower both nursing sore hips...
Just keeps getting worse and worse.
Chiming In
I tend to lean toward a BYU win tonight, only because its horrific 3pt shooting simply can’t continue, statistically. Just a week and a half ago, Charles Abouo and Brock Zylstra were top-3 in the conference in 3pt shooting. But, with two losses at home and every shooter completely abysmal (and with our 6th man injured) things aren’t looking up.
I think Sacre will be the key to the game. When he shows up, he can be a force, but sometimes it seems he is easily swayed mentally. If he’s locked in, Gonzaga will have its best chance.
Managing Editor - Vanquish The Foe
Well, in our last game we shot 9% from 3 even though this might be our best 3 pt shooting season ever. So we’ve got some 3’s owed to us, too.
True. Zags were phenomenal against Portland everywhere but the three point line. 2 pointers and FT’s were shot at a very very high clip.
Managing Editor - Vanquish The Foe
I think you're right that Sacre can be swayed...
But It’s more physical than mental. If teams play tough on him, he is not able to finish around the rim, if they sag off and play soft, he usually has a good night.
Dicky V
had a class in Portland many years back and one of his topics was coaching on the road. In that class he discussed how his experiencies broke down and attached a point spread to the game on the road. There were varying degrees but the basis was:
League game vs not, rivalry vs not, location, type of gym and fan base. His spread was between 10 and 15 points and he had lots of intangables such as, soft rims vs hard rims, floor deadspots, lighting, nets, backdrops and I would add here, elevation which would fit into Dicky’s location! These don’t even include things like injuries, illness or discipline.
I guess what I’m trying to point out is the difficulty of winning on the road is probably amplified by 10-15 points in many occasions and If the traveling team is equal to the home team in all aspects, the visitors are truely down 10-15 points going in, over the course of the game.
I thought GU would lose at least 3 games in league back in November and this is one of them. I hope I’m wrong but I’ll go with Max but a closer score……BYU 80 GU 78
I've heard that before.
The away team has to be ten points better than the home team to have a chance. Considering the parity among the top of the conference, any one of them that brings their A+ game will win. The Zags will have to leave it all on the floor tonight. I’m predicting a lower scoring game because of BYU’s shooting woes – Gonzaga by 5, 65-60, with free-throws making the difference down the stretch.
SMU seems stronger because they are hungrier. They were snubbed last year on selection Sunday. We all know how that turned out for them, one and done in the NIT. It seemed that early in the season that SMU had a weak schedule with Baylor as their only test, but after watching them play us and BYU I have to say that maybe they are all that.
They are not 'all that'
I posted on Gael Fan’s fan post. SMC is a B+ team at best. They are average and have beat other teams that played badly, or teams that were pretty much nobody.
What they have done is played the B+ for 40 minutes every game. They have been really steady. Against better talent, the best they can do is hope that other team has an off night. The game isn’t theirs to win, it’s the opponent’s to win or lose. They have been lucky to have had that. I watched the BYU game and BYU turned it over a ton. They shot poorly, didn’t execute good offensive looks, and BYU only pulled it together after some technical fouls, fans throwing stuff etc. when it was too late.
I feel SMC is lucky to be ranked. If we can get A game (doesn’t need to be their best, just not sporadic) out of the ZAGS tonight and against SMC, Zags win their 12 straight.
by SoldierofZagistan on Feb 2, 2012 1:46 PM PST up reply actions
The mathematical study supports this to a point..
the studies are centered around “Home court” advantage but the results apply here to this assertion as well.
In general the defensive performance by any given team remains consistent between home and away games, however the offensive output / performance takes a large dip on the road…..I am certain it a direct result of the factors outlined by Dick Vitale…as shared by Mike.
I believe this was demonstrated in the GU game vs Illinois. I don’t think any of the GU players had ever been to the United Center and if so, maybe one or two at most….the point being, all the aspects of playing there def impacted them….at the least in the first half….until they had adjusted…….well…those that were able to do so….I think KP will be able to…given his experience on the road…pre GU.
The good news to me….all things being equal….IMO this GU team is 6-8 points better than BYU….so I think they pull it out……I think they took to heart what Few accused them of in the SMC game…and come out with some fire…..ready to fight.
GU 79 BYU 74……and FT make the difference.
Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. - the Wizard of Westwood
Probably not
Hopefully only down a little at half, give a fighting chance, but given how ugly GU played in the 1st half against Portland, who is just awful, doesn’t fill me with confidence.
I think the Zags will come out on top of this one
In addition to watching BYU play against Saint Mary’s, I also watched their game at Pepperdine, which was 2 games before the SMC game (BYU played at VaTech in between). In that game, BYU’s shooting outside of the paint was also terrible. They hit 2-11 from three point range. Their overall shooting for the game, at 46.9% isn’t too terrible, but that’s because Pepperdine’s bigs were no match for Davies and Hartsock inside. Davies put up 29, but 15 of those points were on free throws. If Sacre/Dower/Harris play smart and keep Davies off the line, their inside game won’t be nearly as effective, and we already know we have a better group of guards. I predict Zags win 76 -73
Gonzaga Bulldogs - 11 straight WCC regular-season championships. 13 straight NCAA tournament appearances.
Someone always seems to get "hot" against GU from 3
Granted it hasn’t happened in every game like last year, and this team is much better on D then many for a long time, BYU seems like the type of team that will have 1-2 players hitting everything they throw up from 3. Also interested to see how the game is called, given what happened at BYU’s last home game.
Let's just go with RPIs
Zags rpi 20, BYU rpi 48. That was easy, We win.
Our bigs will be in a war. Our guards are the x factor. BYU stays cold from deep. Pangos & Bell rock the house.
BYU 166-16 last 12 years at Merriot Center, it’s gonna be LOUD. They have never lost three in a row until tonight.
This is a MUST WIN for us too …Let’s get physical and keep the steak alive!
Zags by 12
Final 4 or Bust!!~
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