Rankings
by Brettzag on Jan 2, 2012 10:31 AM PST
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PrintI know a lot of people don't really bother paying attention to rankings, they don't really mean too much in the end. However, I've always been a fan of following who ranks where and how the Zags are being viewed by the nation. I also think the most interesting time to analyze our position is just as the WCC begins. This year there's no mid-conference game against a Memphis (or the like) to really boost our ranking during conference play, so the ranking we have (or don't have) right now provides a unique perspective at how the 1st half of our season went and likely how the nation will view our traditionally weak conference. As we normally play our most challenging stretches before conference play begins, some of our biggest tests have already passed us by.
According to the CBSSports.com RPI we've had the 4th hardest non-conference schedule and the 10th hardest SOS overall thus far. As you all know we had respectable losses to Michigan State and Illinois, but did a great job against the rest of our opponents. After arguably one of the hardest schedules to date in division I basketball and achieving an impressive 11-2 record, what do you think our ranking should be? I'm interested to know what the slipperstillfits community thinks. Should we be in the top 25? If we only drop a game or two during our conference play, should we be ranked? What's the highest you think we could be ranked? Finishing the year with only 2 losses (which would be a dream!) normally would mean a top 10 ranking (in my opinion), but if we've already played our strongest opponents minus BYU and SMC and are sitting at #26 according to Garry Parrish & Co. then what rank are we really capable of achieving?
On a slightly related note, does the fact we played Xavier during difficult stretch in their season make the W less valuable? I remember last year being ecstatic that we beat a highly ranked Baylor and being really disappointing that the victory didn't mean as much come march because Baylor didn't have as good a season. I predict Xavier will bounce back and end up winning a lot of games. They likely won't achieve their previously exulted status, but getting a win in Cincinnati against the full Xavier squad should mean a lot. I guess what irks me is that when we beat Baylor when they're in the top 10 it doesn't matter as much because they had a bad season WHILE beating a Xavier team when they weren't ranked doesn't mean as much because they were struggling at the time (for arguments sake, let's pretend Xavier goes on a winning streak on this and gets back a lot of their public support in the polls). A win is always valuable, but we all know winning against a more successful opponent helps us when it comes to seeding in March. Should a victory really be considered more valuable because of how the other team was playing at the time? It's not like Xavier or Baylor were missing any key players to injury. One could even argue that our losses to Michigan State and Illinois shouldn't mean as much because we didn't have Guy Landry back yet.
Anyway, time for you all to play ESPN pundits. What should be ranked and why? Which is more meaningful: a win against Xavier when they're down (but they have a good season) or last year's win against Baylor when their ranked in the top 10, but they have a bad season?
This post does not reflect the views of the blog authors or SB Nation.
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Rankings
I believe we should be around # 20, it seems there is kind of a road block right now around that number with teams that are having similar success.
We have 2 losses, one on the road against Illinois, although a game we could of won, first road game in a tough enviornment rattled us.
2nd loss against Mich st, which has only lost to Duke and North Carolina, Mich St. has ripped off 13 consecutive wins.
So veiwing our losses its not bad at all. I figured we would have lost 2 at this point just wasnt sure of the games initially.
This Zag team is good, Dower is getting hot, we our playing much better defense, and we have depth. Im still a lil concerned about ill advised turnovers. There was a stretch vs Xavier where we were trying to feed the post and telegraphed lazy passes, happend on 3 or 4 straight possesions.
Jan 12 is right around the corner!
JSH
Ranked #26 by ESPN
Funny SOS #10, won 6 in a row, 11-2 record and not in top 25
Craighton SOS #72 lost this week 11-2 overall ranked #23/24 cant remember?
I know it shouldn’t but it just bothers me! Just got done looking at the rankings and #20-25 I just cant believe they are ahead of the Zags by the numbers and SOS. Lucky the NCAA doesn’t take in to account rankings.
As far as NCAA’s go I think the Zags are a 4/5 seed right now. If they keep playing well and finish with 3 or less loses they can be a 2/3 seed. I think they will punish the Zags for loses to WCC teams.
In my opinion, 3 losses (if the 3rd loss is to someone other than BYU/SMC) would get us a 5 seed at best. Obviously right now we have what I think the selection committee would consider “good wins” (on those little popup things ESPN does around tourney time with resumes). A loss to a SF, Santa Clara would be a “bad” loss. If we drop one to BYU/SMC I don’t consider those “bad” losses, especially since I don’t think we’ll lose to either of the schools at home.
by NewEnglandZagFan on Jan 2, 2012 11:52 AM PST up reply actions
RPI #8
RealTimeRPI.com has Gonzaga ranked 8, just behind Michigan St. Our schedule is paying off. Also AP poll has our ranking at 25. GO ZAGS…..
Bilas has us at 18
…but he also has BYU 2 spots above St Mary’s, and Indiana at 17 despite beating Kentucky and Ohio State. It looks like he went off of a lot of stat trackers like kenpom. Its really interesting to see how the analysts like him rank teams. They are all so different, its no wonder crazy stuff always happening with tournament seeding.
kenpom.com is really interesting
St. Mary’s is 15, BYU is 18, Gonzaga is 23
I don’t think I’ve ever really trusted kenpom but it’s usually a good check on feeling too invincible – I think there’s plenty of struggle ahead for Gonzaga in league play and games especially against those two are going to be instrumental in perhaps getting a very nice seed indeed.
kenpom...
is predictive and the rankings you are listing are in order of a teams likelihood of winning against the average team as defined by the 4 factors.
For anyone who wants to understand the totally subjective nature of the AP polls…go to pollspeak.com choose poll stalker…you can look at all the ballots in relation to each other. So many ballots are all over the map….polls really are worthless.
If you don't like my fire then don't come around...
Can someone explain
how St. Mary’s is getting so many votes? The only “name” teams they have played have beat them…
I’m all for it since it helps the Zags, but I’m confused.
SMC
Seems like SM gets by from playing a weaker schedule and blowing those teams out…other then the Denver and Baylor loss they are killing teams, and put a whooping on BYU.
Same ole thing for St Marys, its there strategy apparently to build up the win column against weaker competition. Saying that I think we realized how good this team is after they stomped BYU.
They have been nipping at our heels for a long time hopefully we can fluff them off this year, its not going to be easy.
JSH
That strategy has clearly paid off for them on selection Sunday. You think they would learn.
Zagnificent - GU Class of 2010
Randy Bennett is on the Coaches Poll Board
It’s interesting that, in the Coaches Poll, St. Mary’s gets 17 votes to the Zags’ 57 votes, while in the AP poll (the more respectable of the two) the Zags get something like 151 votes to St. Mary’s 2. I wonder if a certain someone is voting St. Mary’s a ridiculously high ranking, which results in a specious vote total… (I’m not certain how the Coaches Poll works exactly, but I’m guessing that a single vote as the # 1 team in the country must carry something like 50 “total votes”).
I doubt they'd let that fly
otherwise the system would break down.
Anyone see Eric Angevine of ESPN
has St. Mary’s as the top ranked Mid-Major team? Side note: BYU, Memphis and the Zags are not considered in the list due to their established performance record. Nonetheless, I would be interested to see where they would’ve been ranked had they been included.
Also, Lunardi’s Bracketology latest has the Zags in the West taking on Ohio with most likely UNLV as 2nd round opponent in Portland. Sweet Sixteen moves to Phoenix against the 1 seeded Ohio State. UNLV scares me more than Ohio State, but I love having the Zags in the Portland. Granted, these seeds won’t be anywhere close to accurate come March, but how sweet would it be?!?
There are approx 8 weeks of polling remaining
as long as Gonzaga goes undefeated each week, they will probably move up 1-3 spots each week.
figure a 2 spot average, 16 positions puts us 9th -12h positioh [one or two losses] puts the Bulldogs aroung the 15th position;
which just might secure Gonzaga a #4 seed.
Motivation, Baby!
Not being ranked will get Gonzaga to practice & play harder, just remember to stay focused on those studies.
This happens every year.
We have a few losses during our monster pre-conf schedule. Eilte teams schedule cupcakes during this part of their schedule so they chalk up Ws and stay in the Top 25. Later, we chalk up Ws during our cupcake WCC fare and the elite teams get knocked off because they are playing their tougher conference games then. We make our move up the polls to position ourselves for a great seed come Dance time.
The above is usual fare, unless we have a really, really, good team and do not lose early. Also, it is hard to rise up in the polls when practically nobody is playing anybody {see: St. Mary’s}, except us.
Final 4 or Bust!!~
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