Steven Gray, PG?
by zeeehjee on Feb 14, 2011 2:38 PM PST
Email
PrintAfter our fun discussion yesterday, I was challenged by some commenters to put my money where my mouth is and do my own fan post. This is an attempt to make a FanPost that will help us understand our team better. It is NOT about me being correct in my assessment. I'm not great with statistics, and out of the "Big 3" sports, basketball is the one of which I have the least knowledge. So I hope that those of you with higher basketball IQ and better analysis skills will either help support what I say or provide reasons as to why I am incorrect in my assessment.
Perusing comments in this community, there seem to be two great debates going on regarding the rotation. One of them is whether or not Demitri Goodson is deserving of his role over the seemingly superior David Stockton. "More Baby Stockton!" seems to be the dominant theme in Zag Nation. The other is whether or not Steven Gray is deserving of many of his minutes and whether or not he has what it takes to be the "leader" of this team. Some have pointed out that our best wins of the year (Baylor and Xavier) were largely without Gray on the court.
I argue that Steven Gray does need to be on the court and that this team would be better with him moving to the point guard position, with smaller roles for both David Stockton and Meech Goodson.
I get why everyone wants Stockton to do well. He's local, he's "undersized," his Dad is John Stockton and, most importantly, he is a Zag and we want all of our Zags to play well. But it seems that there is much to suggest that he isn't quite as good as he looks when compared to Goodson. Although I'm not sure how much of a sample size we need to develop accurate judgments, Stockton does not seem to be anything above average at the moment (though there is many reasons to believe that he will continue to develop in the future).
I am assuming that there are several statistics that make for a good offensive point guard. If my assumptions are wrong, please correct me. These would be Turnover percentage (Turnovers/trips down court), Assist Percentage (Assists/Trips down court), and "Effective Field Goal Percentage" (Field goal percentage with increased weight given to made 3 pointers), and perhaps "Average Points per 40 Minutes." Using percentages as opposed to raw numbers removes the important variable of playing time so that we can more effectively compare players against one another.
When compared to other Point Guards in the WCC, which is a much younger group than I expected, Stockton is simply average (All statistics taken from Statsheet.com):
Points Per 40 Minutes:
- Roguemore (SC): 14.3
- McConnell (SMC): 18.4
- Doolin (USF): 9.3
- Lowery (Pepp):10.1
- Douglas (UP): 15.3
- Stockton (GU): 11.3
Assist %: (Assist percentage is an estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while he was on on the floor.)
- Roguemore (SC):25.3
- McConnell (SMC): 29.8
- Doolin (USF): 18.9
- Lowery (Pepp): 28.6
- Douglas (UP): 27.7
- Stockton (GU): 23.4
Turnover % (Estimate of Turnovers per 100 plays. The lower, the better)
- Roguemore (SC): 19.2
- McConnell (SMC): 17.4
- Doolin (USF): 22
- Lowery (Pepp):26.2
- Douglas (UP): 26.8
- Stockton (GU): 26.3
If you were counting, Stockton came in at 4th, 5th, and 5th out of the 3 statistics and 6 players I looked at. Certainly there are variables that these statistics can't account for, but the point should be obvious that Stockton doesn't give us a huge advantage over our opponents at the PG position.
Which brings me back to Steven Gray. Steven Grays scores 18.5 Points per 40 which is good enough for first place on this list, just barely ahead of Mickey McConnell. His Assist percentage is 25%, which isn't great but is an upgrade over Stockton. His Turnover percentage is 19.2, which would place him well ahead of Stockton, and tied for second behind McConnell.
Moving Steven to point guard and, perhaps more importantly, cutting down the minutes given to Stockton and Goodson would allow for other players we all seem to like to have more Playing time. For example, we could start using Harris at the 3 more often which is a position many have claimed, both here and elsewhere, that he is more naturally suited for. This could also generate more court time for Moenninghof, Carter, and Dower which is something that the average Zag fan seems to be in favor of.
Rather than calling for Stockton to get more time at PG, it seems more worthwhile to call for Steven Gray to move to the position and have Stockton enter from time to time as a sub, thus opening room for Carter, Moenninghoff and Dower to get more minutes. Obviously, this could impact Gray's statistics negatively but we won't know until we try, and at this point of the season it looks like there isn't any reason not to.
Please fill out the poll below and let me know if you found this interesting in anyway. Or just tell me off if you still think I'm stupid. I'd also love to know if you agree or disagree with my interpretation and analysis.
Go Zags.
This post does not reflect the views of the blog authors or SB Nation.
59 comments
|
4 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Goodson and 'Passing' should not appear in the same sentence
I really want to like Goodson.
I really want him to succeed.
Why can’t he learn the most rudimentary passing techniques?
I don’t need to give you all examples — just watch him play — any five minutes he’s been on the floor this year and you will see what I mean.
That pass (I think it was to Harris) on the fast break at Pepperdine pretty much says it all — he failed to lead the player running the floor! He put the pass right at the spot occupied by Harris (who was running hard) instead of just a bit ahead of him.
End result: Harris is spinning around trying to control the pass that was easily two feet behind him. In tennis they call this an unforced error.
Now it is true that if both the passer and recipient of the pass are running at an equal rate of speed the momentum of the passer will be imparted to the ball and the ball will actually travel forward even though the pass was made parallel to the base line. The only gotcha is that BOTH passer and recipient have to be moving at the same speed. As you might surmise this was not the case on this occasion.
I just give up! Didn’t Goodson every play quarterback on the playground? Doesn’t Goodson pass the ball to team mates when warming up by shooting layups?
You have to lead a receiver when you pass. Every kid on the playground knows this.
Yeah I know, I know, its only one pass. You cannot condemn someone for one pass.
If it was just one pass . . . but it ain’t. This is a broken record that just won’t quit.
This poll should not have been about who should be getting more minutes at point guard. It should have contained the following choices:
Do you think:
1. The GU coaching staff is incapable of explaining basic passing to Goodson?
2. Do you think Goodson has a hearing impairment that prevents him from understanding the words being directed at him by the coaching staff?
3. Do you think that Goodson is confused about whether telegraphing a pass is a good thing or a bad thing?
4. Do you think Goodson needs sufficient instruction in physics so that he understands that you cannot pass one solid object (the ball) through another solid object (an opposing player)?
5. Does Goodson have tunnel vision?
6. Does Goodson even know what a ‘no look’ pass is?
7. [I won’t print this but you know what should go here].
This team will only go as far as its point guard(s) will take it. It doesn’t matter how much talent you have on the front line if you can’t get them the ball when they need it.
It ain’t easy to go ahead . . . when your goin down.
mjc
I agree..
This team will only go as far as its point guard(s) will take it.
And David Stockton isn’t going to take it much further. We’d better hope that a freshmen is able to step in next year, because a future of Meech and Stockton isn’t looking so bright, though I think there is hope Stockton to become pretty good.
by zeeehjee on Feb 14, 2011 4:32 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Patience with Stockton
He’s been somewhat decent this year and he’s only going to get bigger stronger and faster. It’s obvious that meech would make a better cornerback than point guard. But on the other hand he’s very useful when we play teams with elite point guards
by 1AndDone on Feb 14, 2011 4:44 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I think Stockton could become good down the road...
but there isn’t exactly a lot of time to be patient during this season. How long do we have to wait before we make a change? WCC Tournament?
give it time
as much as i like young stockton, he is over matched on the defensive end of the court. not saying that he doesnt try his hardest bc you can tell he does. we have to remember he is a freshman and defense can be taught if one wants to learn, which i dont doubt stockton does. he is a very proficient passer and when he does get off the rainbow 3 it usually drops. with that said, if he we’re to be a successful pg outside of the WCC which i honestly believe has really improved from top to bottom, he needs to gain about 20 pounds of muscle and somehow grow another 2inch. with regards to pangos, i have heard a lto of good things, but i will refrain from calling him the savior pg of the program until hes steps foot on campus. got a big stretch of games coming up so lets go zags.
by LongIsland Zag on Feb 14, 2011 6:03 PM PST up reply actions
How about...
Player X is “passing Goodson” on the depth chart? I think those two could work in the same sentence.
Some aspects of the game are more easily coached than others
I liken the PG to the QB in football. Passing lanes, leading people and being aware of more than a couple players in space at a time are all difficult skills. I know they are skills that some people pick up more quickly than others. The term BB IQ gets bandied around frequently and I think it plays into the passing and court awareness of PGs. I don’t think Goodson’s play is a result of poor coaching.
by panhandleZagFan on Feb 14, 2011 7:37 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Nice job putting together this fanpost, but...
Wheres the DAMN PICS?! {i kid,i kid}
I voted for “other”. As in someone not yet here, because what is here is a disaster. Gray is better suited for the (3).
However, after reading your fanpost, which is a puntual masterpiece, embellished with stats and thought provoking dialogue, I have decided the year is lost anyway. Let’s go ahead and throw Gray in at the point.
DOOOOOO IT!!!!!~ GO ZAGS!!~
Its gonna be gLoRiOUS!!~
*punctual, woops
Damn these comments. Once you hit the post button you are screwed. Wish they could fix that. An edit button would be nice. Just like if you post a fanpost of fanshot…you can edit it.
Its gonna be gLoRiOUS!!~
Sorry bout the pics ;)
Yes, PG is a disaster and isn’t going to improve. This team doesn’t have too many other options.
Why no Meetch stats?
I know we can go and find them, but were you worried that if you posted Meetch’s stat lines that the post would turn away from “Why not try Gray at the Point?” and into a “Give Meetch the Hook and pull him off the stage fest?”.
What was the time frame on the stats you mentioned? This year, the last 10 games…
Thanks for writing and interesting fan post! ;)
by panhandleZagFan on Feb 14, 2011 7:42 PM PST up reply actions
Well, the short answer...
is that they weren’t worth talking about. They were even worse than he looks.
I actually started out comparing Meech and Stockton, expecting to find out that they weren’t that different. Boy was I wrong. Stockton is way better. Then I looked at McConnell’s stats and they made Stockton look like Goodson. Bottom line is that I don’t think either of them are able to run a team like we are accustomed to, though Stockton still has years ahead of him to grow.
It was all season, so perhaps looking at the last 10 games would be better. That’s an angle I’m embarrassed to say that I should have thought of.
I think you make a good point about some stats being stupid to look at...
So, Gray turns it over less than our point guards, so he should be PG….do you know what a PG does….
If Gray has to bring the ball up against pressure all the time (i’m not sure if his handle is even capable) he is too tired to score, and probably commits more turnovers…
DO BETTER ZEE, I know you Larvae Bug, and Hoft are stat geeks, dedicated to enlightening us as to how we should look at game…and you have some points, but you dropped the ball on on this one….DO BETTER
If that's me, I'm no stat geek
I’ve got two liberal arts degrees and only took one math class in college. And even that one I effed up.
http://twitter.com/larevblog
http://larevblog.wordpress.com/
HAHA!
I can concur that larevblog is not into stats. I can also, however, state that he has an appreciation for evidence.
Evidence? Why cite evidence when you can just yell real loud?
It’s the Glenn Beck Corollary.
http://twitter.com/larevblog
http://larevblog.wordpress.com/
Ok...
1) I never said any stat is “stupid” to look at.
2) Not only does Gray turn the ball over less, he passes better, and scores more as well.
3) Since he is capable of creating his own shot (something I haven’t seen Stockton do), I’m sure he’s capable of bringing the ball up the court, even with pressure.
4) Matt Bouldin brought the ball up the court all the time last year and didn’t have a bad year on account of being tired.
5) Sorry this wasn’t to your liking. I apologize that the ball was dropped.
Steve creates for himself, just not for other players
Nobody on this team does, except for EH when he’s going well. That’s the problem with this offense more than turnovers, I think. I don’t know if that answers the question of who should be playing PG, but I don’t think it should be Steve.
If someone could tell me what his OPS+ is against lefties, I might be inclined to listen, though.
http://twitter.com/larevblog
http://larevblog.wordpress.com/
I still haven't figured out what the + sign means. I think it has something to do with park adjustments.
I know he doesn’t seem like too good of a fit at PG. Maybe that’s because he isn’t suited for the position and I somehow instinctively know that. Maybe its because I’m so used to seeing him do other things that I can’t imagine him playing point, even though he might be able to. But he seems to have good stats in all of the areas that people like to talk about when comparing point guards.
I’m not sure I buy that he can’t create for other players. He leads the team in assists.
Getting an assist doesn't necessarily mean you've created that basket.
I’m sure there’s some saber stat that measures creating, but here’s what I’m talking about: EH gets the ball on the wing and drives the basket (which never happens anymore); EH attracts two defenders; EH passes the ball to someone under the basket; that guy scores. Assist, sure, but a basket created by EH attacking the rim.
http://twitter.com/larevblog
http://larevblog.wordpress.com/
I understand
that there is a lot that happens off the ball in this game and that stats can’t nearly tell us the whole story. I understand some of this off the ball stuff, but not nearly all of it. There are three questions I have. The first, is how much impact a PG has in creating points in this system? The second is how well are Stockton and Meech doing this (not even taking into account Defense)? The third is how far can this team go with Stockton and Meech at PG.
A bonus would be that if the second and third questions don’t produce favorable answers, why not just throw a Hail Mary and do something wild?
My answers:
1) Ideally, a huge impact, though it doesn’t really matter as long as someone creates. There’s just not enough attacking from any position right now, as I said before.
2) Not well. Stocks is much better passing into the post than Meech (which isn’t saying much), but all that does is leave it up to Sacre to create his own shot, which he’s shown he can’t really do. I hate that our entire offense is predicated on getting Sacre FT attempts. It’s like a bad soccer game.
3) Not far.
http://twitter.com/larevblog
http://larevblog.wordpress.com/
If I did...
than that is impressive because I didn’t intend to do that. I did intend to explain that some stats make it easier for us to compare players against each other than other stats, but I don’t know how that means that other stats are stupid.
I’ll be more careful about what I say next, I guess. I’ve offended plenty of people over the last day. I’d hate to start offending statistics as well.
If you are comparing turnovers, you should compare postition to position
heaven forbid we get a 7 foot back to the basket center who only shoots, and never turns it over, you “stat hounds” might politic for him to be the new point guard
This was probably the most obvious problem I had with my own post.
I wasn’t sure how fair it was to compare players of different positions, but figured that once the offense is set up things would even out between guards.
yes, you can offend people, but leave the stats alone
by mattzag72 on Feb 14, 2011 7:22 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Ah man.
I would have rec’d this if you had used the reply button.
Ah, what the hell. REC’D!
by zeeehjee on Feb 14, 2011 7:23 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
boohooohooo
Here I am…all RECless. ;-(
Wait…being reckless is not allowed in here.
Its gonna be gLoRiOUS!!~
All in fun, you have real good points, I shouldn't be a spaz
I really think you diminish Gray’s talents if you move him to PG…I should have said that in the beginning
Possible...
But there are other angles to consider. Even if Gray’s talents are diminished, would it be worth it if it got more out of Dower, Hof, or Carter?
I don’t think a minute has gone by this season without one of Stockton or Goodson on the court. I think that is a big reason why this is being hailed as our worst season in a long time.
Not just Gray, but EH as well.
Additionally Harris seems to be most effective playing at the 4. It allows him to attack the offensive glass more, as the big guys tend to have less transition defense responsibilities. He also would have less ball handling responsibilities playing the 4. Focus on what he does well. I believe the “Harris at the 3” experiment wasn’t exactly a success.
by crawdads on Feb 14, 2011 11:29 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
It can be hard to tell the difference between being a spaz in good fun and being an a-hole trying to derail the conversation.
I assumed the latter (naturally) and was getting all geared up to be a jerk in response until i got down here. Maybe it would help the productive tone of our various conversations if we lead with our good foot (here, your completely valid point about there being problems with Gray at PG, and with comparing his TO stats with those of a primary ball-handler), and then follow with the yanking of chains.
What's the deal with number ones falling this year???
Thought Duke was gana rock this season, now I’m thinking O-state or Pitt has a better chance of winning….
There's no good answer to this question
which is why we are still talking about it with five game remaining in the season. I do fall on the side that Gray should not be running the point consistently, however. Firstly, he is the only player that consistently tries to create for himself. He belongs away from the ball becuase, and this really sucks, if you take him and put him at point, you have Gray, Carter and Manny/Hoff. The latter three simply don’t seem to want to create consistently or aren’t good enough to do so.
The other reason for Gray not running the point is that he just isn’t that good of a ball handler, to be completely honest. This is a bit lesser of a worry because Stockton gets swallowed up by pressure defense and Meech, well, just does what he does. Gonzaga doesn’t have a sure handed guard on this team. Gray has run the point from time to time and it usually winds up in him dribbing past the halfcourt line and then getting pressured and turning his back to the hoop and driving to back down his defender on the dribble. It’s just not a pretty thing.
If GU had a Sam Dower-esque wing (by that I mean extremely aggressive and not afraid to attack consistently) sitting on the bench, my reply might be a bit different to this post. That just doesn’t exist this season. We just have to choose the lesser of a number of evils which, in my opinion, is Stockton at point, Gray as a wing, and then whoever Few likes the most before the game out of Carter, Manny, and Hoff.
The Slipper Still Fits - SB Nation's home for the Gonzaga Bulldogs!
Wellp...
I hope Stockton makes some strides, or else I really don’t see how this season can be saved.
Do you think that Stockton can play a full game? If not, do you want Meech subbing in for him or somebody else?
Stockton 30, Meech 10
unless the opponent has someone to pressure Stockon and rattle him. He has shown tendency to fold when this happens. If that is the case, you have to roll with Meech. Look, I’m not saying this is a great solution in any sense of the word. It is, as they say, what it is. Gonzaga’s one-dimensional backcourt members have plagued this team and I don’t think there is a fix that is going to propel this team to a run in the tournament.
I’ll be (pleasantly) surprised if they win the conference tournament and will be astonished (again, pleasantly) if they win a game in the tourney.
The Slipper Still Fits - SB Nation's home for the Gonzaga Bulldogs!
by Zach Bell on Feb 15, 2011 9:44 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Yes.
I know that this isn’t your preferred solution in any sense of the word and that it is what it is.
Haha,
are my tired sports cliches good enough substitutes for “Shit, we’re screwed”
The Slipper Still Fits - SB Nation's home for the Gonzaga Bulldogs!
by Zach Bell on Feb 15, 2011 10:05 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Great observation!
“were you sitting on your couch observing these issues”? Geez we need a better PG? What a f***ing insightful observation! Zack hit it on the button, we have no clear cut answer, everything is by committee unfortunatley. And like I’ve stated earlier and others as well, unless our freshman step in and are superstars next year, which is highly unlikely, this might be a program on the bubble next year as well?
Hopefully this is insightful enough for you, our offense lacks playmakers! And did it ever occur to you that good offense can also create good or better defense? Just think about that one.
I also found absolutley no humor in your post!
I'm sorry that a thoughtful conversation about Zag basketball makes you angry.
Maybe if I also already knew the answers to everything people were going to write about, I’d feel frustrated and angry too. But I envy zeehjee if indeed his couch does contain all that detailed info about WCC point guards.
I’d be interested to hear more about your suggestion that good offense “can create good or better defense,” as would Mike D’Antoni and Suns fans everywhere.
Haters gonna hate, lovers gonna love. I don’t even want none of the above… etc.
I'll explain
We have a slug of guards that can’t create offense. Guys like McConell, Delava_whatever, don’t spend nearly as much energy on one end of the court. This makes them better offensive theats. We don’t attack, we don’t move the ball in half court sets. Our lack of good offense is making our defense worse! Is that clear enough. Anybody who has been around basketball long enough knows this!
news flash
the NBA and College Ball are 2 different games.
Offense can create defense is acually a Coach K quote.
So your argument rests on a paraphrased and un-explained Coach K quote?
ok then. You’re clearly in the right.
wait, it sounds like you're saying that they don't do much on defense, and thus can focus on offense.
Wouldn’t that be a case of bad defense creating better offense, and not better offense creating good defense? Either way, you don’t actually explain how our half-court crappiness makes our defense worse.
If I had to guess at what you mean to imply, it’s that efficient offense leads to more energy to expend on defense, while an inefficient offense saps the energy levels one has for defense. There’s something intuitively sensible about that, but I’m skeptical. For one, inefficient offenses also chew up a lot more clock time, which means you don’t have to defend as long. But secondly, I again bring up the example of Mike D’Antoni’s teams: the most efficient offense professional basketball has ever seen, and yet no real commitment or tendency to solid defense.
Yes, we can see plainly that need a new point guard.
But the statistics show that our situation is worse than our eyes perceive.
Every single year we can say, “I hope our freshman step in and are superstars next year.” But some of us still think there is hope for this season and would like to see some solutions for our present problems, as opposed to next year’s problems.
Look, the way I see it, there are two ways to judge any situation. Good analysis of the players and statistics. Using both of these can help us get a better picture of what is going on. Most people who post here, do neither. It says that you used to play basketball in college. Why not explain to us what is going to help make us smarter?
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
