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The far too early Top 10 for 2010/2011

Which teams can we expect to challenge for a spot in the 2010/2011 Final 4? (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Andy Lyons - Getty Images

Which teams can we expect to challenge for a spot in the 2010/2011 Final 4? (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

After watching such a tremendous basketball game between Duke and Butler, my juices are already flowing for next season and the potential that perhaps Gonzaga could be competing at that level. While there are still many draft-decisions to be made before May 8th, here is a very early shot at Top 10 for the 2010/2011 season. I will be giving a quick explanation with each team, and I am also going to assume some people declaring for the NBA.
 

1) Duke: Even with the graduation of Jon Scheyer and the likely move of Kyle Singler to the NBA, the Blue Devils will be loaded next season. Kyrie Irving could very well start as a freshman alongside the underrated Nolan Smith. I also have very high expectations for Seth Curry, who is the younger brother of Stephen Curry. Andre Dawkins should improve, and it will be interesting to see how Mason and Miles Plumlee develop. If Duke can get some production in the frontcourt, they should be tremendous next season.

2) Purdue: I was incredibly tempted to have the Boilermakers at #1, but a lot of their success will depend on the health of Robbie Hummell. It's often said that it takes up to 18 months to be fully healed and comfortable after a serious knee injury, so it will be interesting to see how confident Hummell is able to play at the start of the season. However, with Hummell, E'Twaun Moore, and JaJuan Johnson likely returning, Purdue could be great if they are healthy.

3) Michigan St.: It clearly will be very loaded at the top of the Big 10 next season. With Kalin Lucas expected to return to school because of his injury during the NCAA Tournament, the Spartans will have a loaded back court with Lucas, Durrell Summers, Chris Allen, and Korie Lucious all incredibly gifted guards. Draymond Green and Derrick Nix  provide a nice presence in the front court, and if Delvon Roe can ever get fully healthy, he is a game-changing talent. Adreian Payne should provide some nice production as a freshman with his height and toughness.

Star-divide

4) Memphis: The Tigers will be the 2010 version of Kentucky, with a tremendous group of freshman looking to bring the program back to a high level. Josh Pastner has secured commitments from Jelan Kendrick, Will Barton, and Joe Jackson, who are all Top 15 prospects on the Rivals 150 list. When you factor in the return of Wesley Witherspoon and the likely return of Elliot Williams, the Tigers should be back among the elite next season.

5) Butler: This ranking could obviously change if Gordon Hayward decides to declare for the NBA draft, but for some reason I think he will be back for another try at a National Championship. If Hayward returns, then the Bulldogs will look very similar to this season, with Matt Howard, Shelvin Mack, and Ronald Nored also expected to be back next season. I'm not convinced that Butler was the second best team in the country this season, but with their style of play, it's a very difficult team to match up with and beat.

6) Temple: This is a team that a lot more people would be paying attention to if it wasn't for one bad game. The Owls had a great season, winning the Atlantic 10 regular season and conference tournament, but a loss to Cornell ended their season far too early. The Owls are set to return their top five scorers next season and Fran Dunphy is one of the best coaches in the country. Look for Temple to break through as a Top 10 program next season.

7) Missouri: It's hard to explain just how excited I am about this team next season. The Tigers will return their top five scorers and bring in Tony Mitchell and Phil Pressey, who are perfect fits for the high-tempo system that Mike Anderson loves to run. Missouri may also land Matt Pressey, who is the brother of Phil Pressey, and is also a JC guard that Gonzaga has started to show some serious interest in.

8) Pitt: Jamie Dixon has proven himself to be among the elite coaches in the country, and he should have one of his better teams in 2010/2011. The Panthers exceeded most expectations with their performance this season, and they return their top three scorers. Ashton Gibbs should be one of the elite guys in the Big East next season, and look for Isaiah Epps to step in and make an immediate impact next year.

9: Gonzaga: I'm not sure there is going to be any trio in the country I would take over Steven Gray, Elias Harris, and Rob Sacre. The key for the Zags next season is who will emerge at the PG position and at the PF spot. I expect to see Sam Dower start at the PF with Elias Harris moving out to the SF position. If Meech Goodson, GJ Vilarino, or perhaps a JC guy like Marquise Carter can take the PG position to the next level, this could be a great Zags team.

10) Illinois: Combine an elite level recruiting class with the return of Demetri McCamey, Mike Tisdale, Mike Davis and you have the makings of a very good Illinois team. Much will depend on the development of Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson during the summer, but I think we should have a very fun game to watch at the Battle in Seattle this season.

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guards?

I believe our guards next year can defend well. They can score in transition. But can they score in half court sets? Can they make big shots? Both Duke and Butler have guards that can do that. You have to be able to make shots. We might be in the top 25 next year ranking wise, but until our guards can make shots and defend for 40 minutes, we will go no further than the 2nd round. Steven needs to be consistent? Meech? GJ? and a Juco guy? That’s a lot of question marks for me.

by montanazag on Apr 6, 2010 5:56 AM PDT reply actions  

Wow

Quite an interesting top 10. I love Mizzou’s prospects for next season. Good to see you hitting the Boiler bandwagon!

The Slipper Still Fits - SB Nation's home for the Gonzaga Bulldogs!

by Zach Bell on Apr 6, 2010 7:11 AM PDT reply actions  

The other GU

I’d love to see GU in the top 10 to start next season, but you guys forgot about Georgetown. If Monroe and Freeman stay, it’ll be team that won’t graduate any players. Loss to Ohio aside, they made it to the Big East championship game, and would field a pretty potent starting 5. Wright, Clark, Vaughn, Monroe, and Freeman; Vaughn is the only one that didn’t average double digit scoring, with 7.4 ppg.

How do I know this, my roommate reminds me of this on a daily basis.

Not a top 10 team, and it pains me to admit this, but the Huskies will probably end up being ranked 11-15 to start next season.

by JTabs on Apr 6, 2010 9:50 AM PDT reply actions  

Has Monroe definitively said he's back?

I remember hearing that he said he’d come back after they lost to Ohio but wasn’t sure if he’d said anything without emotional impact

The Slipper Still Fits - SB Nation's home for the Gonzaga Bulldogs!

by Zach Bell on Apr 6, 2010 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

Monroe

Haven’t heard anything new, but I’m sure there are a few NBA scouts in his ear talking about the league. Sounds like the loss to Ohio left a bad taste in his mouth. What’s the deadline to declare for the draft?

by JTabs on Apr 6, 2010 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

i cant see monroe returning

If Monroe comes back then I totally agree with you, but I just don’t expect to see him at Georgetown next year. As for UW, I love their guards, but there is no one there who can replace the leadership and production of pondexter.

Final 4 or bust

by Max Mandel on Apr 6, 2010 1:00 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

Alterations to your top-10

1. Michigan St.
2. Kansas
3. Kentucky
4. Purdue
5. Butler
6. UNC
7. Georgetown
8. Missouri
9. Pitt
10. Gonzaga

I think you’re missing both Kansas and UNC. Both teams have great coaches, loads of talent, and will reassert their supremacy at the beginning of next season. I know UNC had a terrible year, but with an off-season and such a great coach in Roy Williams, I don’t expect them to stay down for long. And without Scheyer and Singler, I don’t expect nearly as much flair from Duke. I know Gonzaga has some question marks at the point guard position and with recruits, but I wouldn’t be a fan if I didn’t have them in this spot. :)

Zagnificent - GU Class of 2011

by Zagnificent on Apr 6, 2010 10:24 AM PDT reply actions  

Also,

I don’t have alot of faith in Pastner as a coach quite yet. I’m amazed that he’s pulled together the recruiting class that he has, but I don’t see them being truly dangerous for another year or two. And without knowledge of Kentucky’s recruiting situation and the NBA draft, I can’t put them in the top 10 yet. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in this list near the end of the season though. Also, I think you’re way too high on Temple and Illinois.

Zagnificent - GU Class of 2011

by Zagnificent on Apr 6, 2010 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

Wall

is probably a goner for sure, but if Cousin’s sticks around they’ll have a nice team next season.

by JTabs on Apr 6, 2010 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

LOL

Well I agree with you sir, I do think he’s gone, but there is always a chance that someone stays another year.

by JTabs on Apr 6, 2010 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Also,

I’m assuming that Kentucky takes one or two of the remaining top recruits. Calipari can recruit the best players in the country year in and year out. This year’s draft will serve as proof that a year under Calipari will boost your draft stock and make you millions (though it won’t necessarily get you an education).

Zagnificent - GU Class of 2011

by Zagnificent on Apr 6, 2010 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think

Cousins would have skipped college entirely if it weren’t for the rules.

by Tom117 on Apr 7, 2010 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

NBA departures

I understand where you are coming from with KU and UNC. However, it will be incredibly difficult for KU to replace Aldrich, Henry, and Collins. They will be good, but you don’t just bounce back after losing those three guys. With UNC it will be interesting to see how they rebound. Much like Gonzaga, UNC has issues at the PG position. Plus they lose deon thompson to graduation and likely Ed Davis to the NBA. They will be good, but I wouldn’t put them in the Top 10.

Final 4 or bust

by Max Mandel on Apr 6, 2010 1:03 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

No way

we are a top 10 team until we get some questions answered in our backcourt. I am with montanazag.

by jomogolfpro on Apr 6, 2010 10:29 AM PDT reply actions  

As Zach mentioned

I am totally fine with people saying that I have teams too high or too low. But don’t just say that and then not say who should replace them. With Gonzaga, the trip of elias harris, steven gray, and rob sacre should certainly warrant high expectations, as well as the likely developent of guys like manny, sam, and kelly. As for Memphis, Josh Pastner has spent the past 7 years learning from Lute Olson and John Calipari…something tells me he might be able to manage the talent and expectations just fine.

Final 4 or bust

by Max Mandel on Apr 6, 2010 1:07 PM PDT via mobile reply actions  

SI Predcitions:

Luke Winn over at SI also did a forecast for 2010-2011. I like your list, Max, and think that the addition of a quality guard like Carter to take the pressure off Meech would do this team well. Sam Dower is also going to help out a lot, and I can’t wait for a taste of Elias at the three.

by viva_morrison on Apr 6, 2010 2:14 PM PDT reply actions  

What are you talking about?

New Mexico State will be a powerhouse next year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Its amazing how much we ripped bouldin for not shooting, scoring enough or just basically disappearing during games and blame him partially for our losses this past year (especially against cuse) and now we are all of the sudden dumbfounded as to how we can be successful without him. We were in a much worse position last year after losing Daye, Heytvelt, and Pargo and we still managed to go to the tourney and win a game which is more than could be said for quite a few teams on MallonFan’s list. While we may not have the answer to our PG situation right now we just need to relax. Recruiting is not over and this staff has shown that they are capable of developing players . . . oh yeah and its only April.

by opooos on Apr 6, 2010 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

The Zags will have to

win their way into the top ten. There are just too many loaded teams out there. My bet is that they’ll be a pre-season top 20, though, considering the talent they have now. If Daniels can come through and get GU a real point guard that can at least make free throws, that will round out the team.

by Tom117 on Apr 7, 2010 8:55 AM PDT reply actions  

Maybe I'm not nuts for having Gonzaga in the Top 10

http://msn.foxsports.com/cbk/story/never-too-early-for-a-new-top-25

9. GONZAGA

Record: 27-7 (second round of the NCAA tournament)
Lose: Matt Bouldin Potential Early Entry: None
Key Returnees: Steven Gray, Robert Sacre, Elias Harris, Demetri Goodson, Kelly Olynyk, Mangisto Arop

It won’t be easy to replace Bouldin, but the ‘Zags still have plenty to remain atop the WCC and be a fixture in the Top 25. Gray and Goodson are a talented and experienced backcourt and Harris and Sacre give Mark Few and Co. a front-line tandem that can match up with just about anyone.

Final 4 or bust

by Max Mandel on Apr 7, 2010 10:07 AM PDT reply actions  

Not Bad

As you said in your write up, it is way too early for a top ten, but your’s isn’t that bad. After the NBA time table for early entrie is up then I think we will have a better sense of a top 10. I would say you are a little high on Temple and Muzzu but the rest weren’t all that bad.
I like:
1. Duke
2. Purdue
3. Butler
4. Syracuse
5. Mich St
6. Pitt
7. Ohio St.
8. Kan St
9. Baylor
10. Gonzaga

Sorry I’m a crazy fan but I looked up and down ESPN, CBS, Fox, SI and I think the Zags can beat the other teams. I also think they can beat some of the teams ahead of them. Will they be in the pre-season top 10? No way! Will they be in the Final Poll top 10? I think so. As many people have stated before the key to next year is development of the players. It’s on the Coaching staff now. They need to develop the kids they have and have them buy in to the system. Don’t tell me we are not TALENTED enough b/c Butler didn’t get to the Championship on talent, they got there b/c they played as a team and baught into the system. Develop what we have…bust ass all offseason and we will be a top 10 team by the end of next season, when it counts!

by suzag on Apr 7, 2010 12:28 PM PDT reply actions  

You're dreaming! Unless changes are made, You're dreaming.

Did any of you who think GU is a top 10 team watch the final 16 teams play, then maybe evaluate why they got there, then place GU in that mix of those teams and ask yourselves why and where GU was weak in that group? Seriously evaluate those questions! Look at the facts for once and make an honest statement not a heartfelt one. You can’t wish them to the final 4!

Without breaking down every team in every game for you, I will simply state the most relevent subjects and you can fill in the blanks that go with each.

1) DEFENSE 2) GUARD PLAY 3) PREPARATION / MINDSET / MENTAL TOUGHNESS 4) GAME COACHING

The number one issue by far is the difference in the defensive playing level of GU vs. all of those other teams. If you didn’t see that, then you might suggest possibly it could be, the REF’S?

By the way MallonMan, “Ditto’s”.

by mikesequim on Apr 7, 2010 2:03 PM PDT reply actions  

I agree for the most part

I am not terribly excited by a back court that has to rely on the leadership abilities of Demetri Goodson and Steven Gray. In addition, someone in our array of guards needs to show that they can score consistently before I will admit that we will be a better team than last year. I am not saying it can’t be done, I am saying it just needs to be done.

As far as your other three aspects are concerned I think that Game Coaching, Defense and Preperation will all be improved as our Freshman get older and with the addition of Coach Daniels. It will take time and we will probably need to grow during the season, but I don’t think they are a top ten team . . . yet.

by opooos on Apr 7, 2010 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'll Bite

1) DEFENSE
The 09 team was a bunch of Freshmen and Redshirts that had not played together previously. Harris and Kong in particular hardly had time to unpack before the games started. Gray’s defense improved exponentially last year. Meech wasn’t too bad either. I think the rest of the team can improve too — maybe not to Gray’s level but I think they can improve a lot. Injecting a new player into this mix will not improve things beyond the play of the individual new player. There is work to be done here but yeah — I think 2010 will see a very tough defensive team.

2) GUARD PLAY

Admittedly an area of concern but only on the offensive end. Villarino brings a great offensive game and I think Grant will give the same kind of play you got from Bouldin in many respects. Arop is going to lead the team in rebounding next year and it will be very hard to keep him off the floor. I don’t know where he will play but I know he will play a lot of minutes. Gray will only get better. Bet he spends a lot of time on his offensive game this summer. We are just fine an guard.

3) PREP / MINDSET / MENTAL TOUGHNESS

Guess this is your first swipe at Coach Few. We saw the team fall apart a few times last year and it would be fair to say that the majority of our losses saw the team melt down to a certain degree. You can blame the coach if you want. I blame the players and the inexperience of those players. It appeared to me that they were more than a little susceptible to distractions. For most of them, this was the first time they played opposition of the caliber that beat them and quite often in very hostile venues. I don’t know what the coaching staff could have done to prepare them for this kind of thing other than playing a very tough schedule early in the year (well looks like they did that). The team has been through a rather intense formative period in 09. I don’t think one or two new guys are going to change anything here. Individually and collectively, they guys we have will need to deal with this. Personally I think we will see improvement in this area in ’10.

4) GAME COACHING
Swipe #2 at coach Few and his staff. It appears to me that Coach Few had a lot of confidence in his players and felt he didn’t need to intervene all that often. Indeed if you play an up-tempo game, you don’t want to call any more time outs than you absolutely must. If you prepare your kids well before the game there is no need to draw up a play on the white board during a time out. Guys like Izzo look great when they do stuff like that — if it works.

I’ll only say this, I seriously doubt Coach Few is going anywhere anytime soon. So if Few’s game coaching is a pre-requisite to getting to the final four, I guess we are doomed forever. Personally I don’t agree with that position. But you are entitled to your opinion.

We didn’t lose too many games in the last minute last year. And when we did, I don’t think it had much to do with Few’s game coaching.

mjc

mjc

by quidveritas on Apr 7, 2010 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

In case you missed it, Max's Top 10 is on the front page of cbssports.com

There is a link to it along with Gary Parrish’s list in the main part of the CBB section.

by ZagsFanatic on Apr 8, 2010 2:18 PM PDT reply actions  

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