Will Gonzaga add to the madness? Zags vs. Seminoles
Is it possible for Friday to somehow top the incredible day of basketball that we were all just able to witness? Even without Gonzaga playing, I feel emotionally drained watching all of the last second finishes and clutch shots that have set this up to be a truly special NCAA Tournament. However, with the first day behind us, that means that it is time for Gonzaga to take the court and extend their season for at least another 48 hours.
We have obviously covered Florida St. from every conceivable angle over the past week, and I would have to believe that anyone that steadily reads this blog is now familiar with the athleticism and length that guys like Chris Singleton and Solomon Alabi will bring to the table tomorrow night. The Seminoles will provide Gonzaga with the most difficult defensive match up they have faced all season, and the Zags will need to get out on the fast break and try to score easy points, because it will be very difficult to get clean looks against Florida St.
Obviously, there is no way of knowing of what Gonzaga team we will see tomorrow. If we see the tough and gritty team that won in Maui, won at Illinois, and won at Memphis, then I firmly believe that we will have to start getting more information together about Syracuse/Vermont for everyone to consume before Sunday night. However, if we see anything like how this team played over the final three weeks of the season, it will be time to write the obituary on this season and move on to 2011 recruiting coverage.
The key defeating a team that is so dominant on the defensive end is to find as many easy buckets as possible over the course of 40 minutes. Rob Sacre and Elias Harris must not only be dominant on the defensive glass, they must also look to get the ball out to the guards and lead the fast break. This Gonzaga team is at its best when it is playing fast and pushing the tempo throughout the game. If they can minimize the time that Florida St. has to set the defense and get physical in the half court, then I feel very confident about the result.On the defensive end of the court, Gonzaga will likely spend the majority of the time in a 2-3 zone. Florida St. is not a good shooting team, and they also have a propensity to commit silly turnovers when they are pressured or taking out of their comfort zone. One key change I would make on the defensive end is extending the 2-3 zone out even farther. Instead of allowing Florida St. to sit around the perimeter, I would like to see Meech and Steven push the top of the zone farther out, and make the Seminoles beat the defense with their passing and decision-making.
I have gone back-and-forth on this game since the second that this match up was announced. I love the fact that Gonzaga has had so much time to rest and get a break from basketball after the grueling season they played. I hate the fact that Florida St. is the type of physical and athletic team that has given the Zags so many problems recently. However, I keep sensing that this team is ready to return to the form that made them so captivating and great in the beginning of the season. Behind a great performance from the "Big Three" of Matt Bouldin, Steven Gray, and Elias Harris, the Zags will pull off the 74-65 victory.
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Comments
We must factor in Gus Johnson.
Because he’s announcing:
1. The game will be close.
2. The Zags have a slightly better chance of losing this game.
3. The Zags have twice as good a chance of beating Syracuse if they can get by the ’Noles.
by SethGrandpa on Mar 18, 2010 11:47 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Haha, love it
All these are undeniable truths.
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Everyone,
from Joe Lunardi and Dana O’Neil at ESPN, to the President has Florida State over Gonzaga. It’s a forgeone conclusion. The Zags might as well not even show up.
Gonzaga has played the slow down, half-court game before and won. The Maui championship game against Cincinnati was one, and they came from behind and won it in overtime. But that was back when the Zags were tougher, I guess.
It bums me out to hear even Zag fans not having much hope for this one. Buzz kill.
Almost forgot.
I’m going out on a limb. I predict the Zags up big in the second half, win by 7 points.
Bring it on
We will dominate, thats right i said dominate, you can hold me to that one too. Here is why…
Florida States defense- It is incredible to have the top defense in the country, but do you know what they dont do well? Fast break defense. You know what one of the only things Goodsen does well? Fast break offense. He will beat that team down the court again and again.
Demetri- I already mentioned his offense now time for his defense. He may have a size disadvantage as far as height goes, but when playing a team that turns the ball over almost 17 times per game, you can bet that Demetri has his fair share of steals.
Bouldin- He will not stay cold for long.
Gray- defensive stud will get his steals and has found his shooting touch again.
Manny is out- that means we see more of Kelly. I love manny but having kelly’s size out there combined with the fact that kelly wants the ball more than anyone else. He will be hustling like the old zags. And hustle makes the difference in the tourney.
53.5- thats florida states average score. Gonzaga 77.6. even if florida slows down the zags (which they will some) they will have to cut down our average by 24 points. That aint happening.
Gonzaga wins by double digits.
Adding to that,
the Zags are rebounding from a loss to Saint Mary’s and should be pumped for this game.
People have remarked that the commute to Buffalo will drag them down. That’s BS. The Zags have shown all year that they can travel across the country and win. Hawaii, Chicago, Memphis…
People also admire the tough defense that Florida State brings. But what about the Zags’ tough defense? I think the Zags’ defense will be the story of the game. I think we will force turn-overs and draw fouls enough to give us the edge. Those are two category’s that FSU suffers. Steals are oppertunities for fast breaks, and that will go well for the Zags.
but do you know what they dont do well? Fast break defense.
Untrue. No idea where you got that from but that is not true.
Looking at point average is silly. It’s points per possession. And you haven’t seen a defense close to ours… except Duke, and we saw what happened there. Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth.
Go Noles, but also good luck to the Zags and I hope for a well played, entertaining game.
Good comments from the TN
While I generally like to read what Zag fans opinions are of our team, and sometimes our opinions and generalizations get out there pretty far, I appreciate the input from Mr Bud Elliott.
In no way are we talented or skilled enough to overlook any team. That point has been beaten into the ground this year, and it makes my brain ache. To win this game, we need to make in-game adjustments. Sometimes Few nails it, sometimes he doesn’t. If we are prepared right and can adjust to the flow of the game, we do have the talent and skill to win.
by GU.AmericasTeam on Mar 19, 2010 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Some of our turnovers are just ridiculous. We throw the ball into the 4th row.
But sometimes we dribble it off our feet. And that’s when teams can get out on the fast break.
If I am Gonzaga, I want FSU to fall in love with the 3 early on (we do this sometimes if we get hot), because then we never establish our offense.
I have read that they dont have good fast break defense on espn and cbs, and i have the unfortunate honor of working for a seminole here in spokane (he wont stop wearing those florida state shirts) and i have watched numerous games with him, and have seen with my own eyes FSU does not have good transition d. They do well, incredibly well, when the get set, but not in transition.
As far as points its fitting because it shows a style of play. Other teams have tried to slow Gonzaga down too, and it hasnt worked. (well sometimes maybe it has :) ). We have played a Cincinnati team who slows things down as well as a wsu team (although they dont have the athleticism that you guys do)
That being said i stick to my double digit win.
by DanielwMathews on Mar 19, 2010 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions
not sure what you're seeing or hearing
but we are outstanding on transition D. Maybe the best I’ve seen at the college level, which is incredibly important based on our need for it due to our inflated TOs. You may beat us b/c of said TOs and poor shooting from the field and line, but you won’t get easy buckets. Indeed, your best O strategy is open threes by working a patient inside/out game. We are very susceptible to this b/c of our overplaying help D.
Maybe you’re thinking about our poor transition O? We have no one to push the ball effectively.
Points per posession
Florida state PPP .98 Opp .96 that is a +.02 scoring advantage over their opponent.
Gonzaga PPP 1.15 Opp .97 that is a +.18 scoring advantage over their opponent.
Let’s say 50 posessions in the game…low I know but…for argument sake:
Florida state 50*.98= 49 pts
Gonzaga 50*1.15=57.5 pts
Lets look at it this way..We reduce the advantage of Gonzaga by Florida St advantage and we get +.16. If we multiply the possession by this adjusted PPP advantage we get:
50* .16= 8 this confirms the figure above.
So if it is Points per posession..Gonzaga is an 8 point favorite. Leave the punch in the mouth out of it. Think the Zags don’t know what it is to be in a dog fight? Think Florida St is from the Big East, Big 12, Big 10…no they are not.
But you're not account for opponent quality when you figure your numbers.
FSU has obviously played a much more difficult schedule.
FSu played the 18th toughest schedule, Gonzaga 117th.
We have the #1 defense in the country. Your defense is 65th. To say that our opp is .96 and yours is .97 is disingenuous at best and I think you know that. Our Adjusted Defensive Efficiency is 83.9 The Zags are at 94.3
Our Adjusted Offensive Effieicny is 105.2 The Zags is 110.5
The gap between our defense and your defense is twice as big as the gap between the offenses.
And for this Big East stuff, forget that. ACC teams like Wake, Florida State, etc bang with the big boys more so than Most Big12, Big East, or Big 10 teams.
by Bud Elliott on Mar 19, 2010 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions
SOS..
Florida St SOS was 54 not 18. That is RPI…I suppose you are trying to qoute Kenpom..not sure where you got that made up number. Also, our SOS is a result of the leauge we are in. We can’t do anything about that… but we can in Non-con…how did we compare there? Florida st non conf: 215 Gonzaga 60
Secondly we had WF in our gym…pretty sure Harris put their “big boy” on his ass. Please don’t try to tell me how BA the ACC is! That dog won’t hunt here buddy.
We played Mich St at Mich St Illinoi at Illinoi and Memphis at Memphis…all three are more physical then Florida State.
I don’t care why your SOS is 117th in the country, I care what it is, and that is 117th. FSU’s is 18th. Click the link, look on the left side.
And that Wake team that you had him in your gym, beat you 77-75.
by Bud Elliott on Mar 19, 2010 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions
yes and I suppose it is cause their SOS was better....no wait..
And of course you don’t care simple fact is the SOS for your team is a result of the system…there is nothing that can be done about that.
It's because the majority of your games are against terrible competition
Even your own members are calling out your analysis as bunk.
by Bud Elliott on Mar 19, 2010 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions
In the words
of the illustrious, one time Gonzaga blog (RIP La Revolucion), the WCC is a “Mickey Mouse” conference. That at least is undeniable.
La Revolucion?
I hate that guy.
http://twitter.com/larevblog
http://larevblog.wordpress.com/
Me too.
If you ever see him, let me know. I’d love to sucker punch him in the solar plexus.
Consider it done.
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http://larevblog.wordpress.com/
Well since SOS tells EVERYTHING GU might as well not even play, hell they shouldn’t even have a team since we can’t help the league, and so we front load teams. Ass
All I'm saying is that throwing out per game scoring numbers without adjusting for competition level is silly
You very well might beat us. I’m thinking something like 73-61 FSU, but I could be very wrong.
by Bud Elliott on Mar 19, 2010 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Jesus
that’s a rout in FSU terms. 12 points would be disgusting.
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It's 5 points over what we should do against a D like Gonzaga
See below
by Bud Elliott on Mar 19, 2010 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions
So what you're saying...
Is that in a game of fantasy baseball, FSU’s got it locked up?
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We're like Picking Pujols as our last pick in his rookie year
by Bud Elliott on Mar 19, 2010 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Not a bad pick, but you're forgetting one thing...
Fantasy baseball’s for nerds.
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The numbers
definitely offer us a different perspective than we can get from all the talking heads. Thanks for presenting that argument here.
However, as useful as advanced statistical analysis can be, we’re talking about one game, not predicting a season’s worth of performance. Yesterday, Ohio beat Georgetown.
Still, any Zag fan that says they are comfortable is out of their mind.
Nope
im not out of my mind… i just have faith.
One could argue faith is blind and i am ok with that.
Make sure you check back in on my prediction after we in by double digits
by DanielwMathews on Mar 19, 2010 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions
call it what you want, it wont change the outcome
by DanielwMathews on Mar 19, 2010 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Completely agree
it is one game. We’ve both seen our teams play very well and very poorly and that variance is something that makes college hoops special.
Haha, I could see that
whenever I see a baseball players name, I immediately think steroids…because they are all on them…except for Walt Weiss in his hayday
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Brett Boone is
A Dick (notice the capitol d). I had numerous run-ins with him around the city and he was always a dousche. Maybe that was the ’roids.
by GU.AmericasTeam on Mar 19, 2010 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions
...it doesn't really work that way.
as far as calculating PPP and expected points.
Average our Offensive Efficiency and Your Defensive Efficiency. That comes out to 99.75
Average Your Offensive Efficiency and Our Defensive Efficiency That comes out to 97.2
So for a 100 possession game, we’d be projected to win 100-97. Lower the possessions to about 68 (average our our 2 paces), and you get 68 for FSU and 66 for Gonzaga.
by Bud Elliott on Mar 19, 2010 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions
I, for one, can’t wait for the game. Then we can watch a series of numbers (both whole and otherwise) battle it out on the court, and we can finally see which collection of data is superior.
Go Gonzaga’s numbers!
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No doubt the numbers say this will be close
It’s balance v. bi-polar.
by Bud Elliott on Mar 19, 2010 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions
This Game
Scares me, plus with the Fuskies and SMC winning, if we Coug it, going to be a depressing few weeks.
Numbers, numbers, numbers...
I’m so sick of numbers right now! It comes down to the players making the plays. Which team is going to come out and dictate the tempo. Which coach is going to make the necassary adjustments to the game plan. Is it tip off yet?
go get 'em
Let’s tip it off. Re: Buffalo and the travel, if we win two games, we go to Salt Lake City.
Josh Normand
Buffalo
Watching the Clemson, Missouri game in Buffalo now. The rim sounds like it has a screw loose… you can hear the ball clanging of the rim… for some reason that always makes me uneasy.
Minor Key Points
I have not heard or read much on these minor points,
How does FSU defend against big men that shoot he 3, Both Elias & Kelley can shoot beyond the arc, (though if Gonzaga is going to rely on this we are in trouble);
Elias & Kelly both have excellent up & under moves when close to the basket (though we have not seen it from either in a while);
Critical factor I believe will be which big men, Zag’s Sacre & Harris or FSU’s Alibi & Singleton will get in foul trouble sooner.
- Guard play by Bouldin, Gray, & Goodsen their assists to turnover ratio as well as how hot Kong gets off the bench will determine the game. Zags need to dominate points inside the paint and keep FSU off the offensive glass; the Bulldogs do that, they win by twelve or more.

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