Who are the Seminoles? Breakdown of Florida St.
by Max Mandel on Mar 15, 2010 11:06 PM PDT
18 comments
Over the past two months we have spent endless amounts of time debating and discussing the same seven opponents. One of the refreshing aspects of the start of the NCAA Tournament is that there is a fresh opponent for us to preview and attempt to dissect. While last year gave the Zags mid-major opponents in the first two round, this NCAA Tournament run will begin against the Florida St. Seminoles from the ACC.
The first thing that jumps out when you look at Florida St. is the incredible amount of athleticism that Leonard Hamilton has at his disposal. Normally, Memphis presents the most difficult match up in terms of athleticism and length for the Zags, but this season that distinction will belong to the Seminoles. In Solomon Alabi, the 'Noles have a future lottery pick who is a legitimate 7'1 and can absolutely dominate the game with his defensive play. Alabi averages 2.4 blocks per game, and there is little doubt that he will be the most difficult match up that Robert Sacre has gone up against during his time at Gonzaga.
However, like the rest of his teammates, Alabi is not a huge threat on the offensive end, with most of his scoring coming on second-chance opportunities and open dunks. Alabi averages only 11.6 points per game and is also an ineffective rebounder for a guy his size, pulling down 6.2 boards per game. If Sacre and Foster can box out and use their size and strength to keep Alabi off the glass, his impact could be nullified.
With Alabi dominating the paint, Chris Singleton has the ability to guard and dominate defensively on both the perimeter and in the paint. Singleton is the engine that makes this Seminoles team run, and he offers a very rare blend of size and quickness. The 6'9 forward was recently named the ACC Defensive Player of the Year, and it will be interesting to see if he starts the game using his length to try and eliminate the effectiveness of Matt Bouldin on the perimeter, or if he matches up with Elias Harris. With so much length in both a basic man-to-man defense, as well as in a potential 3-2 zone (which SIngleton often plays at the top of), Gonzaga will need to make sure they take care of the ball and make smart passes in both transition and in the half court offense.
While there is a pretty good indication of the type of performance that Gonzaga fans should expect to see from Alabi and Singleton, I believe that Deividas Dulkys and Michael Snaer will be the difference in this game. With Florida St. being the top defensive team in the country (they the lead the country in field goal percentage defense), the ability of Dulkys and Snaer to score and provide a threat on the offensive end will be imperative watch. Dulkys is an excellent shooter, who hits nearly 40% of his shots from beyond the arc, but he is incredibly streaky on the offensive end. It's vital that either Matt Bouldin or Steven Gray is always aware of where Dulkys is on the court, as making sure that he doesn't get hot from the field should be one of the main priorities for the Zags.
Snaer is an explosive freshman scorer, who is one of the most highly-touted recruits to play in Tallahassee. Snaer recently moved into the starting lineup, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Steven Gray match up with Snaer when Gonzaga is in their man-to-man defense (it wouldn't surprise me to see Gonzaga in their zone defense for the majority of the game. Making FSU score from the perimeter might be the best approach). By not allowing Snaer and Dulkys to get in the offensive flow of the game, Gonzaga should have enough skill and scoring ability on the offensive end to pull out a gruleing and tough victory.
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Sorry about the placement of this post but I tought it was important.
For those who really get hung up on rankings throughout the year and almost bust a blood vessel with each weeks rankings, consider this: The Zags are ranked 22 and 18th in the polls for the weekend of the “COMMITTEE” seedings. Given rankings positions, look how many teams were given even or better seeds than GU! Go to the ESPN one where they are 18th and look then go to the AP where the are 22nd and look!
If the rankings MEAN anything to the basketball world, GU by getting an 8 seed would put them at 29-32 in the rankings? Yet they are 18-22 in both polls? Without going through the others above them maybe you should look for yourselves. I watch the board through out the year to see the posts that get caught up with the polls and just die when the seedings come out. Bias in the Committe? I don’t know. Ignorance in the polling? I don’t know but it sure doesn’t add up does it?
Not shocked in Sequim every year!
Still hoping for an elite 8 shot.
They wanted to give the possibility of
a 8 over 1 upset. Plain and simple. They try to do this every year, evidenced by the fact that there have been more 12v5 upsets than 11v6 upsets. It shouldn’t be like that…
I’ll take the underdog role though, this is the only way we were going to go anywhere.
Welcome to the Sound Pound...
Polls are meaningless for everything except who gets
their nightly highlights on ESPN. RPI (which I hate) and some blend of committee juju are much more important. According to RPI both teams are better seeds than they deserve. The polls and RPI favor Gonzaga. KenPom favors the Noles.
Nice breakdown, btw.
I’ll add a few things about 4 key players not listed.
6’9" Ryan Reid is the only senior, and our only physical player inside. Limited post moves and a jumper to 15’. Most likely to get in a fight.
6’4" Derwin Kitchen is a 2 learning how to play the point (ala Toney Douglas). Great rebounding guard. Slasher. Doesn’t really understand the point yet. Emotional leader of the team though you’d never know it by his demeanor, as he always looks like he may go to the scorer’s table and take a nap.
6’5" Luke Loucks is a pure point, decent shooter. He’s slow of foot though, and so can get abused by quick guards. Unable to make a pass that’s not a no-look. Hit a couple huge shots at the end of close games.
6’11" Xavier Gibson is by far our most offensively gifted player, though his minutes are severely limited because Ham won’t play kids who don’t understand their roles on D. When he enters the game look for him to shoot on nearly every possession. Showed late season range on the 3.
Lunardi favors FSU
Lunardi claims that GU is over-ranked, even at 18. He says that GU will have a quick exit from the tourney. But what does he know?
Sure, FSU can defend, but can they run? They are strong in the half court set, but not so much in the open court, where the Zags are hard to stop. Pushing the ball up the court will be a plus for the Zags. Next, the Seminoles loose the handle on the ball a lot and the Zags can capitalize on points off turnovers. They also have the dubious honors of being one of the top teams to blindly charge underneath the bucket. Gonzaga will pick up several stops on the defense end by luring the charge.
The Zags have more positives than does FSU and will win this game, although it will be a hard fought contest. After Gonzaga dispenses with FSU, the next game against Syracuse is the most vulnerable one for an early upset. Let’s keep a close watch on the health status of Onauaku, who will not play in Syracuse’s opener, and may be doubtful v. Gonzaga in Round 2.
AND
GU shoots free throws better. I never thought I would say that this season, but I’ll take it.
by GU.AmericasTeam on Mar 16, 2010 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions
I love the matchup
FSU is a good team, physical and athletic, but they are a lot like Memphis…not so great on the offensive end. What I love is that it will allow the Zags to be in a physical game and should they win they will get ’cuse…without their big man…the Zags have a legit chance to beat them..with him, it would be a struggle but still possible. My one hope is that they come to play. That they do not shrink away from tough competition like they did against Duke..but embrace it as they did vs Mich St., Illinois, Wisconsin, Memphis & SMC two of three times.
Tempo
I think this game will remind us of the Cincy game. Tough defensive minded team that isn’t all that great on offence. If the Zags can get running and make it an up tempo game they’ll win by 15 points. If not expect a nail biter like Cincy.
and like Colorado.
We need to control the tempo here from start to finish. FSU’s losses have come when their opponents score 70 plus points, which is what we need to do.
by jomogolfpro on Mar 16, 2010 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Let's just hope
FSU’s basketball players are retarded (learning disabled, sorry Sarah Palin) like their football players :)
Anyone else see that Outside the Lines about FSU’s football program? I don’t like to put down people with LD’s, but when they are that cocky and living through a sport it’s pretty funny. FSU alum Antonio Cromartie can’t read!!! Anyone else know that? He cannot read!! LOL!!
Sorry FSU, but it’s hard not to think of that OTL episode and laugh whenever your school name comes up. At one time nearly their entire football program was made up of learning disabled students.
We should win this, FSU would have to show a little something extra to take us out.
Welcome to the Sound Pound...
Soundpound
Nothing you say surprises me anymore, nothing! Interesting board folk’s. Always Entertaining, not necessarily rational or factual but always, Entertaining! lol
mike
Did you see the OTL episode? Personally I’m an FSU hater and always have been, so it was fun to watch. For me, anyhow.
Let’s face facts, this site is all about entertainment. I’ll let people who get paid for their opinions be rational. Everyone on here who posts regularly has been interesting…
…keep it up! It’s been a nice mix of opinions.
Welcome to the Sound Pound...
by SoundPound on Mar 16, 2010 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That story was written by a Gator.
Not only was it written by our most hated rival, the two main sources used were a fired employee with a current lawsuit against the school and a kid kicked off the football team for stealing, not exactly reliable sources. And how many Rhodes Scholars do you have on ANY of your teams? And our QB earned his degree in finance in two years and will be starting towards his Doctorate when football season starts in the fall. We don’t get info on your team from your rivals so use your head before you start spewing about stuff you know nothing about.
There's two sides to every story, my friend.
Numbers and facts were fudged by a story done by a graduate of that school out east. I wasn’t surprised to find out Antonio Cromartie couldn’t read. Neither was I surprised to read about Frank Gore or Roscoe Parrish being dumb as bricks.
But hey, perception isn’t always reality. College basketball fans will continue to look at Gonzaga as a cute little mid-major school with a limited ceiling.
SCALP 'EM SEMINOLES!
Harris
We need him to be huge this game both on the boards and on offense. The more attention he gets the more things should open up for Matt and Steven, and hopefully that will result in some good offense. He has struggled in a couple games this year when he has had to match up with athletic big men and we have looked so dysfunctional on offense as of late that this match up makes me kind of nervous. Very little ball movement leading to too much dribble penetration and a runner contested by 3 defenders.
Still, we have the talent and athleticism to win this game, and win big. I would love nothing more than for Gonzaga to blow them out and give the committee a big black eye, but I know that won’t happen. It’s gonna be a tough, hard fought game from the tip and we’re gonna have to just want it more than them. Here’s hoping our best is yet to come.
"Expert" Picks
It’s entertaining to see how divided the “experts” are on this game. One Yahoo! Sports analyst said that this was by far the least interesting 8-9 matchup, as Gonzaga should win big. Additionally, they went on to say that Gonzaga should feel insulted for being placed as an 8-seed, and was far and away better than all the other 7’s and 8’s. However, collectively, ESPN analysts picked Florida St. to win the game. I think the message here is that no one knows what the hell they are talking about. I’m going to start picking games by labeling a dart board, drinking heavily, and throwing darts blindly. This year, that method will be as effective as any (except for games with 1/2 seeds).
Zagnificent - GU Class of 2011
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