Thoughts and Views from Section 212: The Anatomy of an Upset
For the second time in the past two weeks, and the third time this season, I was able to see this team play in person. The first two opportunities I had to see Gonzaga play, I saw two victories against the top two challengers in the WCC. So when my dad and I sat down to watch LMU host Gonzaga, I assumed that this would be an opportunity to admire the Zags on their way to another conference championship. When the Zags jumped out to a 19-10 lead, I figured that the game was over, and this would be the chance to get guys like Grant Gibbs and Kelly Olynyk some much needed playing time. However, as the game progressed, I started to get the sense that we could be in for a surprising night.
The first key to an upset victory is when the crowd is allowed to stay loud and passionate in the game. Gonzaga had the chance to make the crowd a complete non-factor by the end of the first half. Unfortunately, LMU stuck around long enough to get the crowd involved and pump up the team. The second key is when the underdog (LMU) begins to hit circus shots. When Ashley Hamilton banked in a free-throw line jumper with the shot clock expiring, I knew Gonzaga was in trouble. When Kevin Young caught an air-ball and flipped it over his head, all while being fouled by Matt Bouldin, I realized that the game was over. There was just too much upset karma in the air to prevent this shocker from happening.
The final key to the upset is when the favored team misses shots that it would normally make. Seeing Matt Bouldin shoot 3-12 was certainly surprising, but it was the looks that he missed that made it even more wild. Bouldin missed numerous wide-open looks, and he wasn't the only one. Steven Gray missed wide-open looks from the perimeter, Bol Kong had two excellent looks somehow not drop, and Rob Sacre couldn't find anyway to actually hit a shot. This Gonzaga team has a very small margin for error, and when guys like Bouldin and Gray struggle as much on the offensive end as they did, this team will find it increasingly difficult to win.
After the San Diego game, I posted a quote from Steven Gray that I believed to be key for the long-term success of this team. The general idea of the quote was that this team needs to not allow the opposition to keep games close or come back from deficits. I have recently been reading The Book of Basketball by Bill Simmons, and I came along this quote that I think perfectly sums up what the difference between this team being good, and potentially being great."Truly great teams can smell blood and raise it a level; you see it happening, the fans recognize it, the announcers recognize it, the guys on the bench recognize it, and even the guys playing recognize it."
When I saw Matt Bouldin, Elias Harris, and the rest of the guys run St. Mary's out of the gym, I started to believe that this team had developed this ability to raise it up a notch. However, with the opportunity to put LMU away in the first half, the Zags didn't raise their game a level and kill the competition. I honestly don't know if it's just a mindset in the program, or how the coaching staff makes decisions, but at some point this program needs to develop a killer mentality that sees them go for the jugular when they have the chance to.
The main thing that I picked up from the game itself (actually, I have to credit my dad for noticing this), but whenever Meech, Gray, or Bouldin goes to the bench, the whole flow of the offense seems to disintegrate. I want to clarify that this isn't a knock on Manny, Bol, GJ, or Grant, but I just think that because of the minutes those three played at the start of the season, there is just a rhythm and chemistry that can't be replicated by the bench guys,
What makes this such a delicate situation is that I think Matt and Steven need lots of rest before March. Having seen these guys play three times in the past two months, I noticed that Matt and Steven were just moving a little slower and looking a little more strained on both ends of the court. However, as I pointed out in the previous paragraph, it's nearly impossible to put those guys on the bench because of how much the team struggles when they aren't on the court. I don't know if there is a right answer on how to balance the playing time, but somehow the coaching staff must figure out a way to get some rest for the starting unit.
I have openly stated that I felt the loss to USF was a good thing. I thought it allowed for the coaching staff to get this team focused and motivated again, while also having a teaching experience from how the team played. I still don't know how I feel about this loss to LMU. The optimist in me wants to believe that this loss will give the coaching staff even more to work on with this team, and also get the guys focused and give them a better understanding of how quickly this season can end with a bad performance in March. The pessimist in me wants to believe that perhaps this team just isn't as good as we all thought. I really don't know which side of the fence I am currently on, and there is no question that this will be most scrutinized final six games of a season that I can remember.
So what kind of performance do I think the Zags will deliver on Saturday. If I had to guess, the Zags will come out and dominate. However, the key will be how well they maintain their focus and continue to improve over the next three weeks. If the team is playing like this in March, we will all be done watching the NCAA Tournament on that first Thursday or Friday. If they can improve and find that spark that seemed so evident a couple of weeks ago, I think we could be in for a special March run.
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I'm not surprised
that the team loses its offensive rhythm when Meech, Gray, or Bouldin get rest. I don’t think it’s a knock on the other guys but a testament to how good our starting guards are. I also don’t think that ’s any different from any other year when GU starting guards would rest and the back ups would get into the game.
I ended up watching the replay of yesterday’s game, and they weren’t as bad as I first (emotionally) thought. What stood out more than all the missed shots was that no one in a Gonzaga uniform displayed a killer instinct or will to stop LMU. I’m not saying that the coaches don’t share some responsibility in the loss but when the none of the players you put on the court play with the same heart as the team you’re facing, it’s hard to win games.
Also, I think with all the wins that GU has, it’s been easy to forget that this is a young team. And even though Gray is a Jr, it’s his first year starting and playing significant minutes while incorporating a lot of defensive intensity into his game. With a young team going through conference play for the first time, as well as adjusting to college life, I’m willing to chalk up their bad games to a learning experience. I think that the young players learn from the losses, and I remind myself that they’ve responded well when they’ve had bad games and have always been prepared for the big games.
If they [the Zags] could have only one quality, the quality to be able to win is not a bad one ~ Mark Few, 2005-2006
Where in the world is Carmen San Diego ohh wait Elias Harris
Have the coaches told this guy to stop playing naturally? sure looks like it as he passed up many shots and just did not have the finish he has had— whether his ego is bruised or coaches are telling him to stop what he was doing— we all know this team is at its best with Matty on all cylinders and Elias being a beast and not taking a second to think but just to react to situations——— I desperately want the guy we saw 3 or 4 games ago back…
killer instinct
“I honestly don’t know if it’s just a mindset in the program, or how the coaching staff makes decisions, but at some point this program needs to develop a killer mentality that sees them go for the jugular when they have the chance to.”
The lack of that has driven me crazy over the past few years; for whatever reason I thought this team has it. They still might, but the loss gave me pause.
Main thought: Loss to USF – probably an inevitable loss just due to the pressure of a young team. That loss teaches killer instinct, to some extent. This loss – just a Murphy’s law game?
I also replayed the game
and I noticed something right away about their defensive strategey. LMU played great help defense right from the start. Ashley Hamilton constantly kept himself between Harris and Sacre. He played to the inside of Harris and when Sacre gets the ball he only has two steps to enter the double team. On one occasion in the early minutes, Sacre got the ball underneath and Hamilton leaves Harris, takes a short step toward Sacre, Sacre went up for the lay-up and Hamilton joined the double team and blocked Sacre’s shot from behind – a clean block.
If this was planned, then we were out-coached. Maybe Harris needs to block his defender out from completing the help side defense.
Did anybody get a look at
the sideline fight between LMU coach and Kevin Young? The LMU coach put his hand to Young’s throat. I wish I could get a screen shot to post.
on ESPN blog
They asked him about it and he said “Young is very childlike and emotional”….the jist was that he was “calming him down, and ABSOLUTELY did not put his hand on his throat to choke him”…
oh i think its bullshit
And one it is pretty rude to call your player “childlike”.
Hmmm...
I think Few should turn to the team and say “score a hundred points or you’re running back to Spokane”…just a thought.
"Choking" Kevin Young
I think the coach was doing what I did when I could tell that my young son wasn’t really listening to me — I would hold his head by the chin and say “watch my lips and repeat what I just said.” Believe me, it works!

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