Biggest Questions of the Summer: Who will Redshirt?
by Max Mandel on Jul 29, 2009 12:39 PM PDT
11 comments
One of the huge benefits of the State of Gonzaga chat was being able to discuss the biggest question marks that hang over the upcoming season of Gonzaga basketball. Today, we are kicking off a series in which we will do our best to answer these huge questions that the team faces heading into next year. Obviously, many of the questions wont be answered until the entire team is on campus together and competition begins, but being able to speculate on topics is the best part of the Summer. In Part I of this series, we will look at the question of Who will Redshirt during the 2009/2010 season?
With the amount of new faces that will be a part of the Gonzaga roster next season, it only seems natural to assume that one of the freshman will be a candidate to redshirt. However, part of the reason that the staff was so comfortable with having Grant and Andy redshirt last year was because of the comfort they had with the guys who were returning. With the graduation of Jeremy, Micah, and Josh, the Gonzaga program lost three guys who the staff knew they could rely on, and guys who they knew what to expect from on any given night. I don't feel like this is the case this year, as beyond Matt Bouldin, we are looking at an extremely talented and an extremely inconsistent group of guys. Obviously, guys like Steven and Rob seem destined to elevate their games to a brand new level, but until the coaches see these guys do it against top competition, it will be tough to know what to do with the roster.
continue reading this post after the jump for our odds on who will be redshirting in 2009-10...
When you look at the group of guys coming in, it's clear that there will be a couple of guys who aren't candidates to redshirt. For example, Bol Kong would certainly not redshirt if he is eligible to play. Bol would immediately step in as one of the top scoring threats on the team, and would provide great depth behind Matt and Steven, and arguably could position himself as the 6th man on the team next year. There is no way that Coach Few would not give minutes to a player with the ability to score like Bol. I think its fair to assume that the same thing can be said about Elias Harris. Elias has played against competition that is comparable to the WCC in Germany, and he more than held his own. Since he will be 20 years old when he arrives in Spokane, Elias does not need the year to mature that many incoming freshman do. The only reason that Elias would ever be a candidate to redshirt would be if he struggled to adjust to life in Spokane, but because of the fact that he has family in this country, I don't envision that to be a problem.
That leaves GJ Vilarino, Sam Dower, Mangisto Arop, and Kelly Olynyk as potential candidates to redshirt. Here is how I would rank them in order from least likely to most likely to redshirt.
GJ Vilarino- It would make little sense for GJ Vilarino to redshirt. While we all have high expectations for Demetri Goodson and think that he will transition smoothly into the starting lineup, there are so many factors out of his hands that make GJ a very unlikely candidate to redshirt. With Meech, he plays at such a breakneck pace, and gets hit around so hard, there is always the slight chance that he could pick up an injury. If that is the case, the staff will want to have a guy with the quickness and natural PG ability that GJ possesses. While Grant is a fine candidate at PG, I think the staff sees him in more of a Bouldin mold, in that he will play off the ball, but occasionally can be the guy to bring the ball up against pressure and initiate the offense. It's reasonable for GJ to be expected to replicate the role Meech had last year, and having both play also brings up this great option that was mentioned in the chat.
GJ and Meech
The staff wants to find a way to play them together if possible.
This possibility absolutely makes me drool. The pressure defense that these two could play against the opposing set of guards would drive teams absolutely insane. Having this option for 5-8 minutes per game is something that the staff wants to have, and this just makes it seem even more unlikely GJ would redshirt.
Percentage chance GJ redshirts: 10%
Mangisto Arop- Manny represents what I think will be the most difficult decision that the staff will have to make next year. I don't know if there is a guy who would be better served having a year to improve his and get comfortable with a different set of rules then Manny. In fact, this opinion was voiced during our recent chat by BuffZag.
I always play with the idea of redshirting Manny
but I just don’t know if we can wait for him. He’d be SO good with a year of US style under his wing.
The problem with Manny is that even though he would benefit immensely from a year to improve, his athleticism and length are nearly impossible to keep on the bench for the season. There is no doubt that the day Manny steps foot on campus, he will immediately become the best defender on the team, as well as the best rebounding guard on the team. It will be nearly impossible for Coach Few to keep that potential on the bench for a full season, especially if Steven struggles with his expanded role. While Manny might not be the best offensive player on the team, he can get to the rim and draw fouls with the best of them, so I don't think it would be similar to a guy like Larry Gurganious, who was such a liability on offense, the staff couldn't put him on the court. So even though he might be the guy who would benefit most from the redshirt year, it seems increasingly unlikely to me he will redshirt, and you can completely toss out the idea if Bol Kong isn't able to play.
Percentage chance Manny redshirts: 20%
Sam Dower- Whether or not Sam redshirts will come down to how much Andy and Will have improved since the end of last season. If Andy and Will can compliment Elias and Rob, then the staff already has a good core of four guys who can rotate at the PF and C position. This would allow for Sam to take a year to improve his strength and continue to mature his offensive game. Sam would definitely benefit from this, and this would allow for him to be an absolute beast when he is a redshirt freshman. However, if Andy or Will has not made the necessary strides, Sam might be thrust into the rotation from day one. Even with his lack of strength, Sam has the ability to score the ball because of his quick lefty hook, and his ability to shoot the ball from as deep as the three point line. He might struggle in the post as a freshman, especially when playing some of the more physical teams on the schedule, but for this team to be successful, there must be a post rotation of four guys. There is no doubt that the staff would love to have the option to redshirt Sam, as he is still years away from reaching his ultimate potential. Sam has already added lots of weight and strength since arriving on campus, but the thought of having a full year for him to continue to add to his frame has to appeal to the coaches. Ultimately, it will come down to how much Andy and Will can contribute this season, and hopefully it's enough to make the staff feel comfortable with redshirting Sam.
Percentage chance Sam redshirts: 50%
Kelly Olynyk: I just can't envision any situation that doesn't have Kelly Olynyk using his redshirt next year. Kelly possesss a brilliant combination of size and skill, but he lacks the strength to allow for that combination to flourish against DI competition. As we saw at the FIBA championships, Kelly struggled against the top competition at that tournament. Many of the shots he was able to get off against the weaker competition in BC became much more contested and difficult when playing top athletes. Not only could Kelly benefit by adding strength, but the year off would also allow for Kelly to figure out how to score against better athletes, and get him more comfortable using ball fakes and step backs. While I still think the comparison is a little off, Kelly would benefit from watching tape of Austin Daye, just to see how he created space against defenders. With the depth at the wings, there is really no need to push Kelly into the rotation this year. This team shouldn't have a problem getting points, and that would be the one aspect of the game Kelly might be able to contribute with early on. It's in the best interest of Kelly for him to have the redshirt year to get comfortable and improve his strength for the marathon that most Gonzaga schedule are.
Percentage chance Kelly redshirts: 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999%
What do you guys think? Who would you like to see use his redshirt next year?
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Brilliant Idea
Wouldn’t it be funny if Mark Few redshirted Bouldin, Gray, and Meech so that they could play with this freshman class a year later. Just toss in the old towel before the year starts.
Obviously joking before anyone freaks!
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Why?
I mean, where does it say that anyone should redhirt? Play them all.
Also, no one is sure that Kong is even on the team, so until official statements are made, you can’t count Kong.
Tom117
by Tom117 on Jul 29, 2009 2:08 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Sure we can!
Who says blogs have to be official!? lol
Someone really has to redshirt this year just for the sake of staggering the scholarships out a little bit. Add in Grant and Andy to the current freshman class and you have SEVEN players that will be leaving the team the same year unless one blows up. It would be great to redshirt two but one is the bare minimum.
It’s hard to ask a staff to recruit a class of seven guys in four years. That would lead to sure-fire rebuilding.
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I'm not really following the logic
with staggering the scholarships. Redshirting is not fair to any player who has the talent to contribute now. There needs to be a strong reason, like an injury (and I can even accept underweight), not because you think he can’t play as good you’d like. If we loose seven players in one year, then that’s how we’ll roll.
Tom117
Can't discount the McLeod/Burgess/Diallo rule.
There is no harm in bringing a kid in and seeing what he can give you against tough D1 level competition in practice each day and parting ways after a year. I wouldn’t be suprised if this happened to Olnynk after a year or two. Might open a scholarship up for the great class of 2011 as well. It was a gamble that the staff was willing to take.
Too many guards!
Considering you can play only 5 guys, who gets the minutes? Matt will play probably31-34, Robert will play in the low to mid 20’s, Steven wil be in the high20’s, Meech in the mid 20’s Andy from 15-20, Grant 6-12, Will 3-5. That adds up to about 145-152 minutes. That leaves roughly 50 minutes divideded between the new players. How can you keep Manny and Elias off the court? I give each of them 15-20 per game add Sam for 5-8 and that leaves about Zero!!!!!!! You notice I didn’t even include the best player coming in, IMO, Bol Kong. If he comes, he will need to be on the floor for 20+ mpg. That means in your scenarios above 2-3 guys sit period! Do you really think guys will give up their redshirt year for NO PT? The key to redshirt’s this year is Bol Kong. He comes, I see KO and GJ in the turtleneck shirts. He doesn’t and I see KO, with the possibility of GJ depending how the initial practices go with injuries. IMO, if you just add up the minutes realistically and apply them fairly, somebody’s sitting and you just don’t give up a year of eligibility for 2 minutes a game as a Frosh unless your at a place like Duke. As always, JMO
Grant and Will
I think these two guys will dictate the redshirt situation. If Grant is playing at a high level, perhaps that allows for the staff to redshirt Manny. However, if Grant struggles and Manny passes him in the rotation, maybe that leads to a transfer from Grant…who knows?
With Will, if he and Andy can prove they can provide good minutes, then you go ahead and redshirt Sam. This would be the best for Sam, and he would be the best big in the WCC by his redshirt sophomore year
Final 4 or bust
Robert
What do you do with Robert on the bench, Andy in foul trouble and Will just being Will? Redshirt Sam and KO instead of somebody else? How many guards and wings are going to get you 10/10? Last year we had Austin and Micah to soften the blow of Josh being on the bench. Austin was the best Rebounder on the team! Look at his limited minutes. I don’t think most people understand how crucial he was to us getting those boards along with Micah. If you don’t have the ball, you don’t score and I’m just not sold on these guards and wings waltzing through GU’s schedule mopping up the post. Andy could be the sleeper. Your right about Grant. Those injuries, back to back, could be his undoing. I hope Manny plays and KO and GJ find the time to develop fo GU. Sounds like in the Minority on this but it still fits with my MO for this club. Thanks for the post and the updates on Micah.
GJ will never redshirt. He’s too talented and too much of an upside to sit for a year. In fact, if he progresses as expected, he will play a bunch.
M80
You could be right. I like to look at the stats and evaluate the kids PT. It’s a tough call. The only player I see GJ playing ahead of maybe is Grant because of his injuries but you could be right.
Kong sat out of organized ball last season, no way he choses to RS and sit out again. Given Harris’ age and maturity, no way he will choose to RS. Given Mamy’s success this summer it’s hard to envision a scenerio he choses to RS. It’s only reasonable to believe on or the reasons GJ bailed out on Kentucky was that he wasn’t going to play. He will get time at the point this just like Meech did last year, no RS here either. The scenerio EDZ suggests about Dower is a possibility. I just don’t see Big Will being any better this year than he was last. IMHO Will remains a bit player but I think we see good things from Andy. If Sam is third man in the rotation at the 4 spot he may choose to wait a year, but it doesn’t seem likely. KO is the only one on the list that seems like he would personally benefit from a RS year.
Spudzag
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