The Definitive WCC Preview
by Max Mandel on Jan 9, 2009 6:38 PM PST
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PrintAfter months of watching Gonzaga battle against the top teams in the country, it's time to settle down and enjoy conference play. This should be a very interesting year for the WCC, as St. Mary's has been arguably the best team in the conference so far (including Gonzaga), while teams like USF and Portland have exceeded expectations. With the injury to Brandon Johnson earlier this year, it became clear that the race for the WCC championship became a two horse race. While St. Mary's may have that gaudy 13-1 record, the quality of their opponents has been pretty marginal. Check out this quote from Mark Few, and try to tell me that it isn't a little bit of a shot at the Gaels.
"(My players) realize, if we (scheduled differently), we could've been 13-1," Few said. "But they didn't want that. They never backed away from this. They're glad we came out here and did this, and went to Indiana and went to Orlando and went to Arizona and went to (Utah). They're all right with it."
With all that said, here are my predictions for how the final WCC standings will look.
1) Gonzaga (14-0)
2) St. Mary's (12-2)
3) Santa Clara (9-5)
4) San Diego (8-6)
5) Portland (8-6)
6) USF (6-8)
7) Pepperdine (3-11)
8) LMU (2-12)
Continue reading for individual team previews
St. Mary's (12-2): Is it possible for a team to be overrated and underrated at the same time? If so, that is how I would classify the St. Mary's Gaels at this point in the season. With the impressive 13-1 record at this point, there is no denying that they should be ranked in the top 20, and a challenger to the Zags reign atop the WCC. However, when you look at their victories, it is tough to find a truly impressive win. At this point, the only win that jumps out at me is the home victory over San Diego St. But is that the type of win that really makes people believe that this is the year that they can take down Gonzaga? Patty Mills has been wildly inconsistent on the offensive end, and while I like Diamon Simpson and Omar Samhan, I don't think this team has enough talent around the "big three" to win the conference.
Santa Clara (9-5): This team has been quite the enigma so far this season. In John Bryant, the Broncos have the top post player on the west coast. However, the rest of the team has not played at a high enough level to keep the Broncos competitive in some of their bigger games. The reason I think that this team will emerge in the WCC, is because many of the freshman and JC transfers they rely on will finally get comfortable in their roles. Look for the Broncos to really challenge St. Mary's tonight, and then play consistent and strong basketball throughout conference play.
San Diego (8-6): It's been astonishing to see how competitive USD has been since the loss of Brandon Johnson. Not only was Johnson their statistical leader in scoring when he got hurt, but he was the emotional leader for the Toreros. With Gyno Pomare and Rob Jones anchoring this team, USD has the talent to compete for an upper-half finish in the conference. The Toreros open on the road against USF and Santa Clara, and if they can sweep those games, they will likely start 4-0 conference. I'm not sure they can sustain that type of record throughout conference play, but a 4-0 start could propel USD to challenge Santa Clara for 3rd.
Portland (8-6): I love everything about the Portland Pilots so far this season. This group believes in the tough defense that Eric Reveno has been preaching, and it appears that this team is getting ready to turn the corner as a program. The Pilots are off to a 9-6 start, which includes victories over Nevada and Washington. Nik Raivio has proven to be a terrific scorer, while JC transfer T.J Campbell is a true floor general. This team will not be the traditional easy victory that they were in the past, and I expect them to give both St. Mary's and Gonzaga a scare.
USF (6-8): San Francisco suffers from Santa Clara syndrome, and by that I mean the role players on the team do not do enough to complement the star. In Dior Lowhorn, USF has the top PF in the conference, and a guy who can get a double-double every night. However, this team has been plagued by the fact that the rest of the team is just not that talented. Kwame Vaughn and Blake Wallace provide nice scoring options for the Dons, but Manny Quezada continues to be one of the most inconsistent players in the conference. If the guys around Lowhorn can find consistency, then USF could challenge for an upper-half finish. However, I have seen nothing that leads me to believe that this could happen.
Pepperdine (3-11): While I think the top 5-6 teams in this conference are the best they have been in years, the bottom two teams in this conference are at one of the lowest levels in recent history. The reason I have Pepperdine ahead of LMU is because they have actually been playing some inspired basketball lately. Trust me when I say that this team is bad....and I mean really bad....but it seems like they are still buying into what Tom Asbury is trying to preach. If they keep playing hard, I think Pepperdine is capable fo pulling off an upset against USF or Portland during conference play. However, I could be completely wrong, and they could get run off the court by LMU tomorrow.
LMU (2-12): Around two weeks ago, I was seriously considering the possibility that LMU might go winless this season. This team has had to deal with the departure of Bill Bayno because of health reasons, and the injury to Vernon Teal. LMU began the season 0-15, and got their first victory of the season last week against Cal State Bakersfield. I give credit to interim coach Max Good for rallying his team after a 49-39 loss to Seattle U, but I don't see any way that this team gets more then two wins in conference play.
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Standings
Although I do think Gonzaga will finish at the top of the league I do not see them going undefeated. Based on the way we have played of late I see them losing at least once, most likely to St. Mary’s on the road, and maybe even getting upset another time on the road to a team like San Diego or Santa Clara. I hoping that the second half of the Tennessee game is indicative of how we will play from here on out. If we play like we did against PSU and Utah though the Gaels will undoubtedly win this league, hands down.
St. Mary's eeeeks by Santa Clara at home tonight.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=290092608
Patty Mills hit a three-pointer with 2 seconds left to give the Gaels the victory. Blah. I was realllllly hoping that Santa Clara would take down SMC. Big John Bryant only had 8 points and 9 boards tonight. I hope you are right about the Zags going unbeaten in conference. There aren’t many teams on the sporting landscape that I despise more than those folks from Moraga. They’ll give you a lot of quantity in the win column but the quality of teams they play is laughable.
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santa clara has played some good teams. i was wathcing the game against them and st marys on game tracker and hoping the broncos would win it. i just dont see st marys beating gonzaga. gonzaga knows how much beating st marys means, and i dont see few letting the gay gaels beat us. gonzaga goes the rest of the year undefeated. we will win our home conference games by an average of 24 points. gonzaga is mentally tough after playing such a difficult shcedule thus far.
Seriously
So they are going to beat St. Mary’s because “gonzaga knows how much beating st. marys mean”? Come on now, that is just stupid. Just because you know a game is important doesn’t mean you win that game. Gonzaga knew the UConn game was important and they lost the game. Knowing how much a game means has little to do with whether you win or lose that game. Gonzaga is good but St. Mary’s is one of the best teams the West Coast Conference teams the conference has ever put out, not counting Gonzaga, for a long time. Santa Clara is damn good and San Diego is solid. Let’s not forget that Gonzaga lost to Portland State….at home. They lost to a mediocre Utah team. That does not translate to an undefeated conference season.
Stupid? I don't know...
I don’t see anywhere where zagagolf said Gonzaga would beat St. Mary’s based on the sole fact they know ‘how important the game is.’ I would give him much more credit than that, (read some of his other posts). He mentioned that the Bulldogs know how important the game is against St. Mary’s and he can’t see Few letting them beat us. While his average points of victory may be a little high, there’s nothing like a confident fan. And I do believe that knowing how important a game is has a factor in winning because it worked for UConn, Portland State, and Utah. If you didn’t believe every game was important…that would be ‘stupid.’
by James Buchanan on Jan 10, 2009 4:45 AM PST up reply actions
Read the post
He also stated, “i don’t see few letting the gay gaels beat us.” I hate to break the news to him but if few had his way and could control every game, Gonzaga would be undefeated. As stated previously, St. Mary’s is a damn good basketball team. They have a great frontcourt with Sanham and Simpson and let’s not forget that they have the best player in the WCC, Patrick Mills. I see them us as 1 and St. Mary’s as 1a as we head into conference play. And lets not forget since we have been the top dog for the past 10 plus years, we always get everyone’s best shot. Teams come in to this game wanting to beat one of the best teams in the country and gain some national notoriety.
As for Mr. James Buchanan:
-I shouldn’t have to look at someone’s other posts to determine whether they know what they’re talking about. Each and every post you have should speak for itself.
-Yes, knowing a game is important but does not necessarily mean that you will win the game.
-I too like a confident fan, but there is nothing more that I like than a little bit of realism and a dose of common sense.
Mills
People are enamored with the production of Patty Mills but I don’t think we should crown him the king of the West just yet. He shoots 15-20 shots a game and hits only 40% of those shots. He’s on track for a remarkable number of turnovers and plays a very out of control brand of basketball. He’s a below average distributor of the basketball, only averaging 3 assists per game. There’s no doubt he can score and he is a great ambassador for the WCC but if you look at his stats, there is plenty of bad to go with the good. I’ll be very interested to see how his stats progress because if he turns the ball over that much against San Jose St. and Vanguard…i’m not sure what he is going to do against Gonzaga.
The Slipper Still Fits - SB Nation's home for the Gonzaga Bulldogs!
Once again
I read the post and zagagolf never said GU would beat St. Mary’s based on the fact they know ‘how important the game is’ as you previously stated he did; but glad to see you changed the subject. There’s no doubt St. Mary’s is a good team and it will be a player battle and a coaching battle.
As for Mr. desmet::
-Glad to see you finally understand that each game is important.
-I don’t know what does of ‘realism’ or ‘common sense’ I need to believe GU will go undefeated in conference play…because while it will be a challenge, it is a definite possibility.
-If each and every post should speak for itself, you’re first post on this thread would be based on inaccurate facts of another’s post.
by James Buchanan on Jan 10, 2009 1:25 PM PST up reply actions
hey desmet
keep youre mouth shut. i know who you are and everyone here should should know he just gets on here to argue. youre thoughts should be taken as a joke and youre just not a credible source to write here. in that case…………………………………………………………………..lets go zags.
Go Zags indeed.
desmet has had some good arguments here and is of course welcome at all times. Just as reminder, I don’t really care what you say about other teams but just make sure to have some respect for one another.
Hope to see you all around for the game thread this evening.
The Slipper Still Fits - SB Nation's home for the Gonzaga Bulldogs!
Let's also not forget
desmet you also seemed to overlook the Tennessee game when we were searching for a win saying it was not nearly as important as the upcoming games against St. Mary’s. Those games are going to be very important and St. Mary’s is a good team, yes one of the best in the WCC, but their record can be deceiving before looking at the differences in schedule strength. As for San Diego, I don’t see us struggling against them especially without Brandon Johnson.
by superZAGnics on Jan 10, 2009 9:33 PM PST up reply actions
Prediction Numbers
Your predicted order of finishing looks pretty reasonable to me, but it isn’t mathematically possible for Santa Clara, San Diego and Portland to have as many wins as you assigned them. A complete WCC league season will have 56 wins and 56 losses divided between the 8 teams, but your predictions work out to 62 wins and 50 losses. One adjusted scenario that could work would be SCU 8-6, San Diego 7-7, Portland 7-7, USF 6-8.
Adjusted Pepperdine Record
And Pepperdine would have to be 2-12 with my adjusted scenario rather than 3-11.
Predictions
I think the order of finish is much like I would have predicted as well, although like desmet I don’t see the Zags running the table. At best, I say the Zags go 12-2. I think the conference has narrowed the gap substantially and even in prior years when the gap was much bigger the Zags have lost 1 or 2 games.
As for my Waves, I don’t think they are as bad as everydayezag thinks. They are young but I think they are very talented. As the season progresses I believe they will make significant strides and agree that 3+ wins is possible.
I enjoy this blog. Keep up the good work.
I can't imagine more than one loss.
It’s hard to run the table in any sporting division. One night you are just bound to have an off night. The only game I will actually get nervous for during WCC play is when Gonzaga travels to St. Mary’s in February (I think). I’d be scared about USD but they don’t have Brandon Johnson and he has been the Zag killer. If Gonzaga goes 12-2, I will be extremely disappointed.
I love Pepperdine’s youth and think that they will be good in the future. Asbury is an excellent coach with an outstanding history there. I hope that program gets turned around.
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sacrilege
EverydayZag,
Did I read that you ‘like’ Omar Samhan. That Sir, is a sacrilege for any Gonzaga fan to say. I am ashamed of you. No one who says, “fxxx you” to our bench on national TV and accuses us of recruiting illegally gets any respect from. Plus, the man should wear a bra. A zags fan’s distain for the oaf should run deeper than even one hatred for UW
MJR
+1
Cheers to EDZ being objective, though. Like and Samhan will probably never come out of my mouth in the same sentence.
The Slipper Still Fits - SB Nation's home for the Gonzaga Bulldogs!
Great Comment Thread..
Love a thread with some good arguments from all..
First of all, I dont think Gonzaga running the table in the conference is unreasonable at all. I give some credit to the argument that there will be games where a team has an off night, but the Final Four caliber teams find a way to win anyways. I agree with Buffzag that if Gonzaga loses two games I’d be really disappointed.
I agree that the gap has closed a bit with some solid teams St. Marys has put together, Santa Clara with big John Bryant, and even a USD team minus Brandon Johnson. Although I wouldn’t go as far as saying its Gonzaga 1 and St. Mary’s 1a, I think thats a bit of a stretch.
Also the last two comments claiming it sacrilege to say you like Omar Samhan is a little over the top. Trust me I hate the kid to but you can’t deny the kid can play. As much as you love to hate him the kid has some skills and we wouldn’t be talking about him if he was some chump on the court. Sacrilege is a little over the top EDZ was stating facts..Chill it
Now lets focus on a little Pilots beatdown..GO ZAGS
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